{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0acdb627-f504-454d-9567-2f1bbb86386d", "symbol": "USSRIE", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.011, "architecture_energy": 60.121, "architecture_maturity": 65.195, "architecture_confidence": 69.818, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.3, "rotation_up": 48.68, "upward_expansion": 77.23, "deceleration": 91.48, "rotation_down": 29.75, "downward_expansion": 15.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.946667, 22.923818, 22.590414, 22.028974 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.594999, "trend_reference": 21.402533, "distance_from_trend": 0.10244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.477869, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276933, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.840448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158605, "excess_performance": -0.012286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043056, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040043, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001251, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.327577, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60763, "relative_activity": 3.387853, "balance": 4.327577, "dry_up": 3.379336, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019773, "annualized_volatility": 0.143399, "from_high_reference": -0.000847, "from_low_reference": 0.264063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.402533, "fair_value_reference": 18.477869, "structural_low": 18.666, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021942, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.025145, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.106171, "worst_return": -0.069508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002211, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132958, "worst_return": -0.149702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.123074, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.04126, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.171232, "worst_return": -0.241165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065283, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.070707, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304599, "worst_return": -0.268757, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053993, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002052, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0086, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", 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"trend": 21.2342, "fair_value": 18.376151, "relative_strength": -4.32622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.170077, "energy": 56.134017, "activity_lines": [ 22.765, 22.822818, 22.326429, 21.794495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.575001, "volume": 138364, "typical_volume": 15281.95, "trend": 21.301367, "fair_value": 18.423363, "relative_strength": -4.38092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.082015, "energy": 46.042589, "activity_lines": [ 22.678334, 22.782546, 22.416924, 21.880998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.594999, "volume": 60763, "typical_volume": 17935.55, "trend": 21.402533, "fair_value": 18.477869, "relative_strength": -2.840448, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.010562, "energy": 60.121308, "activity_lines": [ 22.946667, 22.923818, 22.590414, 22.028974 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }