{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0adb3176-32ac-4ce8-b2c7-83d0163a77c3", "symbol": "01002T", "name": "Cathay No.1 REIT", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.014, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -94.29, "architecture_energy": 96.576, "architecture_maturity": 9.562, "architecture_confidence": 76.533, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.76, "rotation_up": 8.08, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 89.45, "downward_expansion": 99.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.510667, 13.655273, 13.795069, 13.840303 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 13.29, "trend_reference": 13.909338, "distance_from_trend": -0.044527, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.853323, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.319485, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057863, "excess_performance": -0.437175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005676, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105251, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03272, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043857, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362000, "relative_activity": 1.541068, "balance": 0.530952, "dry_up": 1.666652, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011166, "annualized_volatility": 0.051549, "from_high_reference": -0.081212, "from_low_reference": 0.006818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.909338, "fair_value_reference": 14.853323, "structural_low": 13.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.00139, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01845, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.029992, "worst_return": -0.033133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000868, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.071835, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.042262, "worst_return": -0.05482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015686, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.046287, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.039488, "worst_return": -0.106079, "sufficient": true }, { 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13.928297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.69, "volume": 324000, "typical_volume": 220452.05, "trend": 13.949971, "fair_value": 14.892249, "relative_strength": -30.216651, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.822736, "energy": 78.512359, "activity_lines": [ 13.730667, 13.837455, 13.886238, 13.910754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.5, "volume": 575000, "typical_volume": 230852.05, "trend": 13.932024, "fair_value": 14.873606, "relative_strength": -29.404231, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.590572, "energy": 88.028088, "activity_lines": [ 13.641333, 13.760182, 13.849533, 13.881724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.29, "volume": 362000, "typical_volume": 234902.05, "trend": 13.909338, "fair_value": 14.853323, "relative_strength": -31.319485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.289598, "energy": 96.575892, "activity_lines": [ 13.510667, 13.655273, 13.795069, 13.840303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }