{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0adb592c-25b9-4cbd-b0e1-4f683ab8e61c", "symbol": "JSLG3", "name": "JSL S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.154, "architecture_energy": 54.671, "architecture_maturity": 34.523, "architecture_confidence": 95.048, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.84, "rotation_up": 25.29, "upward_expansion": 9.4, "deceleration": 48.29, "rotation_down": 51.14, "downward_expansion": 80.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.512, 5.568727, 5.967714, 6.315548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.4, "trend_reference": 6.723667, "distance_from_trend": -0.196867, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.940097, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090924, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.950507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.371362, "excess_performance": -0.314314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022561, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090924, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.371362, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.399249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4018600, "relative_activity": 1.164839, "balance": 0.399249, "dry_up": 0.907202, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090741, "annualized_volatility": 0.555412, "from_high_reference": -0.387755, "from_low_reference": 0.439458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.723667, "fair_value_reference": 5.940097, "structural_low": 5.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001952, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020849, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.311828, "worst_return": -0.220041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009063, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.013595, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.184859, "worst_return": -0.343042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.140223, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.053822, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.947506, "worst_return": -0.354873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055449, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.205479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"typical_volume": 4546970.0, "trend": 6.769565, "fair_value": 5.970552, "relative_strength": -6.611983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.611554, "energy": 74.718393, "activity_lines": [ 5.666667, 5.848909, 6.364048, 6.640685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.53, "volume": 2555000, "typical_volume": 4248810.0, "trend": 6.779379, "fair_value": 5.965861, "relative_strength": -8.17908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.855735, "energy": 71.80633, "activity_lines": [ 5.623333, 5.748364, 6.252, 6.560713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.49, "volume": 3217800, "typical_volume": 3983715.0, "trend": 6.763, "fair_value": 5.959834, "relative_strength": -9.08755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.799131, "energy": 65.426013, "activity_lines": [ 5.589333, 5.668, 6.149095, 6.477527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.6, "volume": 2727700, "typical_volume": 3544100.0, "trend": 6.747667, "fair_value": 5.951362, "relative_strength": -9.456565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.270557, "energy": 52.904686, "activity_lines": [ 5.586667, 5.626, 6.066238, 6.402495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.4, "volume": 4018600, "typical_volume": 3449920.0, "trend": 6.723667, "fair_value": 5.940097, "relative_strength": -9.950507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.154335, "energy": 54.670779, "activity_lines": [ 5.512, 5.568727, 5.967714, 6.315548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }