{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0adccf98-2688-4e23-898c-6e0bd705d208", "symbol": "FTCB", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD IV CORE INVESTMENT GRADE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.215, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.483, "architecture_energy": 54.978, "architecture_maturity": 4.676, "architecture_confidence": 92.184, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.73, "rotation_up": 12.04, "upward_expansion": 11.9, "deceleration": 38.29, "rotation_down": 65.0, "downward_expansion": 87.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.575253, 20.642231, 20.693196, 20.732113 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.61, "trend_reference": 20.785617, "distance_from_trend": -0.008449, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.712861, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.436693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013109, "excess_performance": -0.138734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008449, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000719, "read": "Falling" 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20.440068, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"activity_lines": [ 20.748306, 20.743806, 20.760175, 20.789881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.699535, "volume": 2730696, "typical_volume": 3585132.0, "trend": 20.809823, "fair_value": 19.695262, "relative_strength": -8.316385, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.73566, "energy": 21.994689, "activity_lines": [ 20.725287, 20.737285, 20.751727, 20.782666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.51, "volume": 3869376, "typical_volume": 3602415.2, "trend": 20.800972, "fair_value": 19.701, "relative_strength": -8.393127, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.257331, "energy": 49.973054, "activity_lines": [ 20.645654, 20.69853, 20.727536, 20.763322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.5, "volume": 3155742, "typical_volume": 3487242.95, "trend": 20.792766, "fair_value": 19.706587, "relative_strength": -9.124312, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.930547, "energy": 59.210105, "activity_lines": [ 20.579824, 20.659121, 20.704545, 20.743905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.61, "volume": 3369554, "typical_volume": 3506320.65, "trend": 20.785617, "fair_value": 19.712861, "relative_strength": -11.436693, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.483215, "energy": 54.977625, "activity_lines": [ 20.575253, 20.642231, 20.693196, 20.732113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }