{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0adf4a95-935c-4bc8-af11-32cf2a0e7fd2", "symbol": "DGICB", "name": "Donegal Group B Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.328, "architecture_energy": 37.86, "architecture_maturity": 58.267, "architecture_confidence": 63.332, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.4, "rotation_up": 47.63, "upward_expansion": 75.29, "deceleration": 70.62, "rotation_down": 22.37, "downward_expansion": 4.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.561604, 22.271846, 21.168834, 20.180559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.01, "trend_reference": 18.914832, "distance_from_trend": 0.269374, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.692005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.634222, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.572837, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230492, "excess_performance": 0.043038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.269374, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109008, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.634222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219949, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.205728, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230492, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54754, "relative_activity": 2.974775, "balance": 0.74918, "dry_up": 3.181323, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126143, "annualized_volatility": 0.583846, "from_high_reference": -0.193145, "from_low_reference": 0.781676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.914832, "fair_value_reference": 14.692005, "structural_low": 14.963894, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.023687, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": -0.039717, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.206332, "worst_return": -0.175332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.038424, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.141385, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.18258, "worst_return": -0.1303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.041555, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.100537, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.346724, "worst_return": -0.180171, "sufficient": true }, { 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18.521315, "fair_value": 14.559075, "relative_strength": 11.139259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.791294, "energy": 33.826775, "activity_lines": [ 21.773912, 21.502002, 20.501627, 19.587346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4, "volume": 3935, "typical_volume": 16871.3, "trend": 18.693893, "fair_value": 14.617817, "relative_strength": 18.969126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.711283, "energy": 33.929708, "activity_lines": [ 21.852293, 21.771924, 20.776269, 19.837584 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.01, "volume": 54754, "typical_volume": 18406.1, "trend": 18.914832, "fair_value": 14.692005, "relative_strength": 20.572837, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.327604, "energy": 37.860318, "activity_lines": [ 22.561604, 22.271846, 21.168834, 20.180559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }