{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ae10dde-e929-4db1-8e55-daf078b46049", "symbol": "603187", "name": "Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.994, "architecture_energy": 40.966, "architecture_maturity": 79.755, "architecture_confidence": 65.687, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.28, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 18.64, "deceleration": 66.6, "rotation_down": 35.57, "downward_expansion": 63.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.085333, 12.026504, 12.490399, 13.16279 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.15, "trend_reference": 14.0442, "distance_from_trend": -0.134874, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.793489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.047229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.239675, "excess_performance": -0.196471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.239675, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37254817, "relative_activity": 1.665265, "balance": 0.208483, "dry_up": 1.47155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062701, "annualized_volatility": 0.301081, "from_high_reference": -0.29606, "from_low_reference": 0.079041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.0442, "fair_value_reference": 12.793489, "structural_low": 11.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008489, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.001369, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.12363, "worst_return": -0.123063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.064335, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031437, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.191555, "worst_return": -0.230586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.072991, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.074404, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.375936, "worst_return": -0.163032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 12.903797, "relative_strength": -11.902179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.320931, "energy": 61.50054, "activity_lines": [ 11.906667, 12.104095, 12.876274, 13.582514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.69, "volume": 30382263, "typical_volume": 21990997.75, "trend": 14.250563, "fair_value": 12.865627, "relative_strength": -14.730817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.691784, "energy": 59.134511, "activity_lines": [ 11.842667, 11.97927, 12.686443, 13.410742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.41, "volume": 34874975, "typical_volume": 21911107.95, "trend": 14.152696, "fair_value": 12.829232, "relative_strength": -9.846732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.064051, "energy": 45.606313, "activity_lines": [ 12.045333, 12.020726, 12.591278, 13.291996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.15, "volume": 37254817, "typical_volume": 22371708.45, "trend": 14.0442, "fair_value": 12.793489, "relative_strength": -14.047229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.994474, "energy": 40.966441, "activity_lines": [ 12.085333, 12.026504, 12.490399, 13.16279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }