{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ae5f6b0-e868-4cc7-b240-15dbf9fbab0b", "symbol": "FFIN", "name": "First Financial Bankshares Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.089, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.09, "architecture_energy": 46.682, "architecture_maturity": 35.45, "architecture_confidence": 66.311, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.92, "rotation_up": 54.14, "upward_expansion": 80.04, "deceleration": 63.06, "rotation_down": 22.53, "downward_expansion": 6.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.876667, 34.695801, 33.75135, 33.005184 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.67, "trend_reference": 32.368184, "distance_from_trend": 0.071114, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.862639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088108, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.245453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.009804, "excess_performance": -0.17765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071114, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039681, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009804, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.950625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3271484, "relative_activity": 0.825921, "balance": 0.950625, "dry_up": 0.982773, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043889, "annualized_volatility": 0.224826, "from_high_reference": -0.068122, "from_low_reference": 0.241212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.368184, "fair_value_reference": 31.862639, "structural_low": 27.932381, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004933, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.013527, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.183781, "worst_return": -0.143742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004134, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038875, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.03426, "worst_return": -0.05028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034221, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.11361, "worst_return": -0.173646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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31.796255, "relative_strength": -1.611799, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.722395, "energy": 65.662214, "activity_lines": [ 34.890667, 34.346057, 33.271791, 32.650936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.14, "volume": 3781611, "typical_volume": 4061132.3, "trend": 32.251338, "fair_value": 31.827663, "relative_strength": -0.512016, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.999683, "energy": 54.953406, "activity_lines": [ 34.958667, 34.591923, 33.547695, 32.849141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.67, "volume": 3271484, "typical_volume": 3961014.05, "trend": 32.368184, "fair_value": 31.862639, "relative_strength": -6.245453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.089829, "energy": 46.681833, "activity_lines": [ 34.876667, 34.695801, 33.75135, 33.005184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }