{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0aeb6ad5-7e80-41c1-b9f0-a323a5e54621",
    "symbol": "XWES",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Energy UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 93.491,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 52.097,
    "architecture_energy": 40.668,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.015,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.122,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.86,
        "rotation_up": 65.87,
        "upward_expansion": 73.97,
        "deceleration": 66.11,
        "rotation_down": 11.28,
        "downward_expansion": 5.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        53.102668,
        52.005274,
        51.959786,
        51.878591
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 52.470001,
    "trend_reference": 50.926416,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.03031,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.285643,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270902,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.096584,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.124879,
    "excess_performance": 0.073644,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03031,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073859,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.270902,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023959,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040966,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.072856,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124879,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.937891,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 28033,
      "relative_activity": 0.721448,
      "balance": 0.937891,
      "dry_up": 0.842534,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.042779,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.270766,
      "from_high_reference": -0.098398,
      "from_low_reference": 0.395916
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 41.285643,
      "structural_low": 46.064999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.0229,
        "positive_rate": 0.578947,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.578947,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004095,
        "regime_survival": 0.526316,
        "best_return": 0.151591,
        "worst_return": -0.070284,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.001312,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006464,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.281129,
        "worst_return": -0.130105,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.120651,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.351518,
        "worst_return": -0.143181,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "sufficient": false
      }
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.766776,
        "energy": 34.130061,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 53.209999,
        "volume": 27263,
        "typical_volume": 37485.1,
        "trend": 46.14818,
        "fair_value": 40.584535,
        "relative_strength": 15.858714,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.404302,
        "energy": 29.962534,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 50.669998,
        "volume": 145385,
        "typical_volume": 44620.75,
        "trend": 46.533263,
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        "relative_strength": 11.38215,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 24.754591,
        "activity_lines": [
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          48.911625
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 54.09,
        "volume": 12194,
        "typical_volume": 45199.75,
        "trend": 47.048846,
        "fair_value": 40.706129,
        "relative_strength": 18.802605,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.765639,
        "energy": 34.38927,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 53.869999,
        "volume": 37720,
        "typical_volume": 46686.8,
        "trend": 47.068416,
        "fair_value": 40.779493,
        "relative_strength": 14.718376,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.554052,
        "energy": 40.322174,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 51.169998,
        "volume": 17362,
        "typical_volume": 47325.15,
        "trend": 47.423749,
        "fair_value": 40.832177,
        "relative_strength": 9.1635,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.157989,
        "energy": 30.498608,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.543332,
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          52.042166,
          50.103849
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 53.259998,
        "volume": 3152,
        "typical_volume": 46914.8,
        "trend": 47.835583,
        "fair_value": 40.893804,
        "relative_strength": 13.570641,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.178803,
        "energy": 35.449537,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.762665,
          52.507908,
          52.299916,
          50.480381
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 52.689999,
        "volume": 4429,
        "typical_volume": 46824.3,
        "trend": 48.186833,
        "fair_value": 40.951858,
        "relative_strength": 10.896769,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.726871,
        "energy": 28.988222,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.788665,
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          50.793569
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 49.68,
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        "typical_volume": 46128.7,
        "trend": 48.468916,
        "fair_value": 41.000071,
        "relative_strength": 5.481364,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 12.515983,
        "energy": 9.974406,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.676666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 49.380001,
        "volume": 756,
        "typical_volume": 42547.65,
        "trend": 48.732083,
        "fair_value": 41.036011,
        "relative_strength": 3.187834,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.606183,
        "energy": 9.541287,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.758666,
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          52.053606,
          50.948682
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 48.490002,
        "volume": 4151,
        "typical_volume": 42105.55,
        "trend": 48.950999,
        "fair_value": 41.068627,
        "relative_strength": -0.414001,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.118438,
        "energy": 21.157028,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.843334,
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          50.933064
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 49.860001,
        "volume": 17820,
        "typical_volume": 42376.8,
        "trend": 49.251333,
        "fair_value": 41.105779,
        "relative_strength": 3.994581,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 0.523195,
        "energy": 28.301198,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.563334,
          50.643455,
          51.531583,
          50.991709
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 52.240002,
        "volume": 26740,
        "typical_volume": 43243.3,
        "trend": 49.656333,
        "fair_value": 41.149493,
        "relative_strength": 7.590232,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.888447,
        "energy": 22.407287,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.303335,
          50.811455,
          51.554119,
          51.184527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 54.75,
        "volume": 51250,
        "typical_volume": 43042.15,
        "trend": 50.13775,
        "fair_value": 41.206724,
        "relative_strength": 10.916769,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.984645,
        "energy": 23.368124,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.910001,
          51.407273,
          51.802881,
          51.51315
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 53.900002,
        "volume": 24929,
        "typical_volume": 41737.1,
        "trend": 50.567916,
        "fair_value": 41.255188,
        "relative_strength": 7.543143,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.209564,
        "energy": 35.861264,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.895335,
          51.836546,
          51.952119,
          51.755876
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 52.470001,
        "volume": 28033,
        "typical_volume": 38856.6,
        "trend": 50.926416,
        "fair_value": 41.285643,
        "relative_strength": 4.096584,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.09748,
        "energy": 40.667948,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.102668,
          52.005274,
          51.959786,
          51.878591
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}