{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0af6274f-c041-4042-aa13-92ced6ae7cc9", "symbol": "NOA", "name": "North American Construction Group Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.648, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.922, "architecture_energy": 8.79, "architecture_maturity": 15.786, "architecture_confidence": 50.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.25, "rotation_up": 31.3, "upward_expansion": 25.24, "deceleration": 38.35, "rotation_down": 24.53, "downward_expansion": 50.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.57, 19.326546, 19.39547, 19.546311 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 20.379999, "trend_reference": 19.926527, "distance_from_trend": 0.022757, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.022646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.151634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.737285, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066279, "excess_performance": -0.1867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022757, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.151634, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057489, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.340633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471100, "relative_activity": 1.203536, "balance": 1.340633, "dry_up": 1.010845, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060829, "annualized_volatility": 0.425316, "from_high_reference": -0.127096, "from_low_reference": 0.246475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.926527, "fair_value_reference": 24.022646, "structural_low": 16.350102, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.02369, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.004462, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.097826, "worst_return": -0.118376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.054984, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.08259, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.250963, "worst_return": -0.217709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076944, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.157063, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.537717, 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"Developing", "return": -0.197302, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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24.284396, "relative_strength": -12.501186, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.540738, "energy": 33.684385, "activity_lines": [ 19.055334, 19.214456, 19.376448, 19.684446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.58, "volume": 324100, "typical_volume": 447100.0, "trend": 19.953328, "fair_value": 24.24862, "relative_strength": -14.941648, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.457164, "energy": 39.959365, "activity_lines": [ 18.894, 19.05432, 19.282151, 19.59707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.620001, "volume": 417700, "typical_volume": 451760.0, "trend": 19.978504, "fair_value": 24.175487, "relative_strength": -9.896265, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.739272, "energy": 25.87993, "activity_lines": [ 19.102, 19.108452, 19.306527, 19.575565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.09, "volume": 369800, "typical_volume": 402750.0, "trend": 19.94493, "fair_value": 24.09481, "relative_strength": -11.402108, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.177718, "energy": 17.769439, "activity_lines": [ 19.116, 19.089292, 19.293396, 19.518242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.379999, "volume": 471100, "typical_volume": 391430.0, "trend": 19.926527, "fair_value": 24.022646, "relative_strength": -7.737285, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.921892, "energy": 8.78976, "activity_lines": [ 19.57, 19.326546, 19.39547, 19.546311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }