{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0afe7433-489d-471a-a627-da7be1dc6d47", "symbol": "IXI", "name": "IXICO plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.613, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.434, "architecture_energy": 8.594, "architecture_maturity": 28.471, "architecture_confidence": 44.728, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.27, "rotation_up": 21.06, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 69.12, "rotation_down": 41.75, "downward_expansion": 31.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0825, 0.083991, 0.082199, 0.081409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.083742, "distance_from_trend": -0.044681, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.105369, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24076, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.466838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.219512, "excess_performance": -0.270747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24076, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180864, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153273, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219512, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.419678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112443, "relative_activity": 0.243875, "balance": 4.419678, "dry_up": 0.500964, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124423, "annualized_volatility": 0.522372, "from_high_reference": -0.466667, "from_low_reference": 0.277955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.083742, "fair_value_reference": 0.105369, "structural_low": 0.0626, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.122699, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.133333, "median_excess_return": -0.103398, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.25641, "worst_return": -0.228261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.310345, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.288602, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.246154, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.40678, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.482825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215385, "worst_return": -0.495074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.499891, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.555228, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.533742, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.561538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.247881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134426, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.203, "volume": 33176, "typical_volume": 106220.8, "trend": 0.211633, "fair_value": 0.547558, "relative_strength": -16.943158, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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"modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.078096, "energy": 22.311146, "activity_lines": [ 0.087033, 0.085586, 0.081014, 0.082504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.085, "volume": 600168, "typical_volume": 583634.7, "trend": 0.087325, "fair_value": 0.107683, "relative_strength": -21.133503, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.136821, "energy": 12.711011, "activity_lines": [ 0.086533, 0.086027, 0.081599, 0.082284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.085, "volume": 174353, "typical_volume": 519669.85, "trend": 0.086242, "fair_value": 0.106946, "relative_strength": -21.433808, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.399631, "energy": 10.177017, "activity_lines": [ 0.086133, 0.086127, 0.082142, 0.082134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 36950, "typical_volume": 501216.5, "trend": 0.084992, "fair_value": 0.106157, "relative_strength": -26.085673, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.652944, "energy": 6.244314, "activity_lines": [ 0.084167, 0.085, 0.082175, 0.081731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 112443, "typical_volume": 461068.3, "trend": 0.083742, "fair_value": 0.105369, "relative_strength": -25.466838, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.434263, "energy": 8.59371, "activity_lines": [ 0.0825, 0.083991, 0.082199, 0.081409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }