{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0b00b881-6399-4ba8-9d9b-5bcc60469c9f",
    "symbol": "USMC",
    "name": "PRINCIPAL U.S. MEGA-CAP ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 87.331,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 81.164,
    "architecture_energy": 60.74,
    "architecture_maturity": 47.452,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.762,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.69,
        "rotation_up": 57.77,
        "upward_expansion": 82.72,
        "deceleration": 62.6,
        "rotation_down": 25.72,
        "downward_expansion": 9.39
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        74.72346,
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        71.717555
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 76.3003,
    "trend_reference": 69.980296,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.090311,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 58.243371,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310025,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.974751,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.126593,
    "excess_performance": -0.060861,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090311,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027867,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.310025,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014652,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029748,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058819,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126593,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.643393,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 351992,
      "relative_activity": 0.758389,
      "balance": 2.643393,
      "dry_up": 0.86459,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022884,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.132091,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008572,
      "from_low_reference": 0.227892
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 69.980296,
      "fair_value_reference": 58.243371,
      "structural_low": 62.139256,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 42,
        "median_return": 0.014981,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000155,
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        "best_return": 0.070562,
        "worst_return": -0.09746,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "worst_return": -0.052325,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.004055,
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        "worst_return": -0.131843,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.051764,
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      {
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 57.442161,
        "relative_strength": -5.735521,
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        "direction": 73.190729,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 543168.1,
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        "fair_value": 57.63727,
        "relative_strength": -2.688838,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 61.671748,
        "energy": 62.06545,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 73.5814,
        "volume": 642600,
        "typical_volume": 516416.75,
        "trend": 69.51831,
        "fair_value": 57.828317,
        "relative_strength": -1.290919,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.145821,
        "energy": 56.641738,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 74.11,
        "volume": 317517,
        "typical_volume": 505067.35,
        "trend": 69.724771,
        "fair_value": 58.028045,
        "relative_strength": -1.053994,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.27838,
        "energy": 52.013409,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 76.3003,
        "volume": 351992,
        "typical_volume": 464131.4,
        "trend": 69.980296,
        "fair_value": 58.243371,
        "relative_strength": -2.974751,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.163596,
        "energy": 60.739818,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}