{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b00bbe3-2eb6-44aa-ac9c-8065d6b0c3b3", "symbol": "JTEK", "name": "JPMORGAN U.S. TECH LEADERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.138, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.654, "architecture_energy": 19.65, "architecture_maturity": 65.741, "architecture_confidence": 78.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.69, "rotation_up": 21.11, "upward_expansion": 47.72, "deceleration": 84.9, "rotation_down": 38.77, "downward_expansion": 28.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.107167, 100.222016, 100.694443, 97.471193 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 102.0335, "trend_reference": 93.635693, "distance_from_trend": 0.089686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.892628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326961, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.91774, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.221812, "excess_performance": 0.034358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326961, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013026, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221812, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785572, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1337843, "relative_activity": 0.889326, "balance": 0.785572, "dry_up": 1.078309, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072256, "annualized_volatility": 0.289364, "from_high_reference": -0.08752, "from_low_reference": 0.355837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.635693, "fair_value_reference": 76.892628, "structural_low": 75.255, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.059736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001651, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155116, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080177, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": 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101.863518, 100.379857, 96.828371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.43, "volume": 1763361, "typical_volume": 1479440.3, "trend": 93.31458, "fair_value": 76.722757, "relative_strength": -5.654458, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.492766, "energy": 18.302406, "activity_lines": [ 97.094793, 100.264449, 100.206055, 96.908682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.0335, "volume": 1337843, "typical_volume": 1504332.9, "trend": 93.635693, "fair_value": 76.892628, "relative_strength": -2.91774, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.653575, "energy": 19.650119, "activity_lines": [ 98.107167, 100.222016, 100.694443, 97.471193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }