{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b0ac024-56a1-4608-bd93-0dc6357e2f1a", "symbol": "M7U", "name": "Nynomic AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.443, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.052, "architecture_energy": 13.73, "architecture_maturity": 37.296, "architecture_confidence": 69.04, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.63, "rotation_up": 18.14, "upward_expansion": 41.82, "deceleration": 75.26, "rotation_down": 36.05, "downward_expansion": 35.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.323334, 16.602728, 17.65881, 16.739807 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.950001, "trend_reference": 15.069, "distance_from_trend": 0.124826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.13141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.23937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.698397, "excess_performance": 0.633757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172837, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.192394, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559965, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.698397, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 241774, "relative_activity": 1.379327, "balance": 0.806825, "dry_up": 0.760188, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151577, "annualized_volatility": 0.869925, "from_high_reference": -0.355513, "from_low_reference": 1.062044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.069, "fair_value_reference": 20.13141, "structural_low": 8.22, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024178, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.058057, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.070122, "worst_return": -0.109442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073262, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.02029, "worst_return": -0.05428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.147394, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.135728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.041135, "worst_return": -0.253653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.549999, "volume": 14505, "typical_volume": 171549.8, "trend": 13.405, "fair_value": 21.038782, "relative_strength": 50.459238, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.81839, "energy": 35.787605, "activity_lines": [ 19.76, 19.972727, 17.357619, 15.472903 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 12621, "typical_volume": 171963.9, "trend": 13.648333, "fair_value": 20.936859, "relative_strength": 37.50142, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.48886, "energy": 29.414847, "activity_lines": [ 19.2, 19.703636, 17.665429, 15.782258 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 29632, "typical_volume": 173125.5, "trend": 13.846667, "fair_value": 20.821795, "relative_strength": 29.424396, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.467862, "energy": 20.948048, "activity_lines": [ 18.3, 19.161818, 17.814381, 15.995269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.85, "volume": 10765, "typical_volume": 173433.7, "trend": 14.045, "fair_value": 20.713141, "relative_strength": 23.112118, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.117991, "energy": 20.153111, "activity_lines": [ 17.636667, 18.637273, 17.920619, 16.189032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.15, "volume": 60116, "typical_volume": 176194.2, "trend": 14.246667, "fair_value": 20.596154, "relative_strength": 20.97506, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.157384, "energy": 19.717132, "activity_lines": [ 16.996667, 18.062727, 17.927286, 16.324839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.65, "volume": 85751, "typical_volume": 180424.2, "trend": 14.442333, "fair_value": 20.478526, "relative_strength": 17.983301, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.317913, "energy": 14.961153, "activity_lines": [ 16.366667, 17.470909, 17.857048, 16.415376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.35, "volume": 66626, "typical_volume": 183222.7, "trend": 14.626667, "fair_value": 20.357692, "relative_strength": 14.212414, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.128375, "energy": 16.225384, "activity_lines": [ 15.896667, 16.930909, 17.730857, 16.473936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.65, "volume": 138844, "typical_volume": 188467.5, "trend": 14.852333, "fair_value": 20.240705, "relative_strength": 20.846201, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.870687, "energy": 15.798864, "activity_lines": [ 16.05, 16.7, 17.699762, 16.604473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 241774, "typical_volume": 175284.05, "trend": 15.069, "fair_value": 20.13141, "relative_strength": 19.23937, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.05179, "energy": 13.730081, "activity_lines": [ 16.323334, 16.602728, 17.65881, 16.739807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }