{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b193887-5717-4f91-ad9b-78b81b484dba", "symbol": "688365", "name": "Hangzhou Raycloud Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.1, "architecture_energy": 52.868, "architecture_maturity": 25.855, "architecture_confidence": 83.459, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.68, "rotation_up": 15.84, "upward_expansion": 7.92, "deceleration": 48.15, "rotation_down": 63.93, "downward_expansion": 81.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.704666, 15.162545, 16.725666, 17.813054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.209999, "trend_reference": 19.605333, "distance_from_trend": -0.173184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.995884, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.448639, "excess_performance": -0.405436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.485581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279767, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.448639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94596562, "relative_activity": 1.540834, "balance": 0.693139, "dry_up": 1.200206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141983, "annualized_volatility": 0.623275, "from_high_reference": -0.526023, "from_low_reference": 0.317886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.605333, "fair_value_reference": 12.915, "structural_low": 12.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.00955, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01672, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.301802, "worst_return": -0.325364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.06015, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018982, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.764493, "worst_return": -0.344156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055625, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.849638, "worst_return": -0.387218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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12.894744, "relative_strength": -21.787229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.627593, "energy": 81.580675, "activity_lines": [ 15.146, 16.387091, 17.755, 18.816839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.65, "volume": 57353599, "typical_volume": 59193454.65, "trend": 19.662333, "fair_value": 12.888013, "relative_strength": -27.218384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.535105, "energy": 84.583769, "activity_lines": [ 14.118666, 15.505636, 17.201333, 18.358193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.63, "volume": 66862792, "typical_volume": 59302581.4, "trend": 19.627333, "fair_value": 12.894936, "relative_strength": -15.889296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.81457, "energy": 68.377734, "activity_lines": [ 14.122667, 15.140545, 16.875476, 18.033527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.209999, "volume": 94596562, "typical_volume": 61393100.4, "trend": 19.605333, "fair_value": 12.915, "relative_strength": -8.995884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.100111, "energy": 52.867793, "activity_lines": [ 14.704666, 15.162545, 16.725666, 17.813054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }