{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b248559-ba49-439f-b8fa-9a8c08baffef", "symbol": "PXE", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR ENERGY EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.955, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.434, "architecture_energy": 42.264, "architecture_maturity": 4.915, "architecture_confidence": 57.922, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.17, "rotation_up": 66.41, "upward_expansion": 74.45, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 11.33, "downward_expansion": 5.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.297467, 36.326613, 36.161044, 36.038691 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.4504, "trend_reference": 35.183681, "distance_from_trend": 0.036003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.505012, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.495033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138444, "excess_performance": 0.01282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.194899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00495, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.565309, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61798, "relative_activity": 0.194006, "balance": 0.565309, "dry_up": 0.468346, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054554, "annualized_volatility": 0.296906, "from_high_reference": -0.105292, "from_low_reference": 0.353847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.183681, "fair_value_reference": 30.505012, "structural_low": 31.244052, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.015285, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.014506, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.195883, "worst_return": -0.26588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020641, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.011374, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.334379, "worst_return": -0.078891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.099042, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037681, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.229641, "worst_return": -0.160926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 35.188192, 35.195598, 35.779022, 35.4338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.95, "volume": 227817, "typical_volume": 337379.5, "trend": 34.55551, "fair_value": 30.405956, "relative_strength": 10.008719, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.890481, "energy": 28.893855, "activity_lines": [ 36.286667, 35.636643, 35.9448, 35.675092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.64, "volume": 91316, "typical_volume": 328807.2, "trend": 34.899108, "fair_value": 30.466079, "relative_strength": 10.450539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.724166, "energy": 45.485199, "activity_lines": [ 37.312, 36.193557, 36.163306, 35.938608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.4504, "volume": 61798, "typical_volume": 318536.4, "trend": 35.183681, "fair_value": 30.505012, "relative_strength": 0.495033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.433912, "energy": 42.264184, "activity_lines": [ 37.297467, 36.326613, 36.161044, 36.038691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }