{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b251451-8670-495c-b0d3-3c117d5f6df5", "symbol": "MPWR", "name": "Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.153, "architecture_energy": 16.274, "architecture_maturity": 43.756, "architecture_confidence": 76.213, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.01, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 45.35, "deceleration": 79.87, "rotation_down": 38.77, "downward_expansion": 37.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 23823.517318, 24055.756139, 24994.368923, 24191.531297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23935.0, "trend_reference": 22820.320089, "distance_from_trend": 0.048846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14996.274396, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.596063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.984752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.31383, "excess_performance": 0.368497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.596063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.433124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.159848, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28068, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.31383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.186747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27, "relative_activity": 0.244013, "balance": 1.186747, "dry_up": 0.32535, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059019, "annualized_volatility": 0.546544, "from_high_reference": -0.188904, "from_low_reference": 0.600937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22820.320089, "fair_value_reference": 14996.274396, "structural_low": 17808.916016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.000112, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.032976, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.489289, "worst_return": -0.234197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.033348, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.016487, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.422762, "worst_return": -0.056768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.218346, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.09766, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.627143, "worst_return": -0.101239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"up", "direction": -6.901839, "energy": 40.687154, "activity_lines": [ 22936.679996, 24365.949539, 24939.005206, 23925.483436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25105.0, "volume": 53, "typical_volume": 109.3, "trend": 22595.359477, "fair_value": 14899.780944, "relative_strength": 22.421848, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.772103, "energy": 27.502242, "activity_lines": [ 23623.779297, 24302.908681, 25037.179921, 24105.102876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23935.0, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 110.65, "trend": 22820.320089, "fair_value": 14996.274396, "relative_strength": 15.984752, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.15333, "energy": 16.274042, "activity_lines": [ 23823.517318, 24055.756139, 24994.368923, 24191.531297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }