{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b275823-4505-42ee-964e-64ec79c6472d", "symbol": "000550", "name": "Jiangling Motors Corporation, Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.119, "architecture_energy": 27.517, "architecture_maturity": 58.047, "architecture_confidence": 86.064, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.06, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 14.84, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 37.45, "downward_expansion": 64.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.363453, 16.288075, 16.817866, 17.173569 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.17, "trend_reference": 17.559626, "distance_from_trend": -0.079138, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.462562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.209776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.408409, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106136, "excess_performance": -0.113536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.209776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19075174, "relative_activity": 1.013796, "balance": 0.799132, "dry_up": 1.055685, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068828, "annualized_volatility": 0.226787, "from_high_reference": -0.281333, "from_low_reference": 0.050447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.559626, "fair_value_reference": 20.462562, "structural_low": 15.393447, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.005618, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.007401, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.335386, "worst_return": -0.153604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011541, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033742, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166183, "worst_return": -0.203042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.060086, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.065913, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.528863, "worst_return": -0.139825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017387, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.171369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.37006, "worst_return": -0.077919, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.206537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019629, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002221, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.151254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072205, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016114, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.778971, "energy": 67.177724, "activity_lines": [ 15.988439, 16.333463, 17.101849, 17.414679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 20419139, "typical_volume": 18949742.7, "trend": 17.699626, "fair_value": 20.433655, "relative_strength": -14.694666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.152491, "energy": 46.779796, "activity_lines": [ 16.024724, 16.240576, 16.975045, 17.31294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.01, "volume": 19790415, "typical_volume": 19215043.75, "trend": 17.640626, "fair_value": 20.458718, "relative_strength": -8.28931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.163207, "energy": 32.103454, "activity_lines": [ 16.380248, 16.335689, 16.934336, 17.268448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.17, "volume": 19075174, "typical_volume": 18815599.5, "trend": 17.559626, "fair_value": 20.462562, "relative_strength": -16.408409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.118812, "energy": 27.517178, "activity_lines": [ 16.363453, 16.288075, 16.817866, 17.173569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }