{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b27d781-d86c-45ff-b1c8-ad526c4297b8", "symbol": "LUPA3", "name": "Lupatech S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.784, "architecture_energy": 70.159, "architecture_maturity": 46.05, "architecture_confidence": 81.988, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 19.04, "upward_expansion": 12.22, "deceleration": 47.58, "rotation_down": 73.28, "downward_expansion": 90.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.64, 0.667636, 0.706476, 0.770602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.879333, "distance_from_trend": -0.317665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.403397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.572466, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.637036, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.482759, "excess_performance": -0.42571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.317665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.572466, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020527, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.482759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.136364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 332000, "relative_activity": 1.346774, "balance": 1.136364, "dry_up": 0.908971, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105128, "annualized_volatility": 0.562031, "from_high_reference": -0.583333, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.879333, "fair_value_reference": 1.403397, "structural_low": 0.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.020082, "positive_rate": 0.340909, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.026459, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.410256, "worst_return": -0.185567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.120881, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.113727, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.54321, "worst_return": -0.312977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.122539, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.165723, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.037037, "worst_return": -0.326446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.47205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156977, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.070922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.224138, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.333524, "energy": 79.550865, "activity_lines": [ 0.705333, 0.723636, 0.76219, 0.83643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.68, "volume": 190700, "typical_volume": 488870.0, "trend": 0.904, "fair_value": 1.448462, "relative_strength": -33.288205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.578784, "energy": 71.867423, "activity_lines": [ 0.692667, 0.714, 0.74781, 0.82172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.66, "volume": 180000, "typical_volume": 473560.0, "trend": 0.899, "fair_value": 1.433654, "relative_strength": -34.318552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.639791, "energy": 67.793612, "activity_lines": [ 0.678, 0.701455, 0.734143, 0.805978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.64, "volume": 193600, "typical_volume": 430970.0, "trend": 0.889333, "fair_value": 1.418333, "relative_strength": -36.618802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.214232, "energy": 64.148172, "activity_lines": [ 0.662667, 0.686909, 0.721, 0.789269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 332000, "typical_volume": 246515.0, "trend": 0.879333, "fair_value": 1.403397, "relative_strength": -37.637036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.78368, "energy": 70.158999, "activity_lines": [ 0.64, 0.667636, 0.706476, 0.770602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }