{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b2e7eef-82ff-42ca-91d0-3307834756a4", "symbol": "002666", "name": "Guangdong Delian Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.853, "architecture_energy": 60.024, "architecture_maturity": 77.315, "architecture_confidence": 95.857, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 28.18, "upward_expansion": 11.39, "deceleration": 60.48, "rotation_down": 52.76, "downward_expansion": 84.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.966667, 3.996727, 4.297762, 4.598022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.11, "trend_reference": 4.963667, "distance_from_trend": -0.171983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.652168, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.116541, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.376853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.27768, "excess_performance": -0.28508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080859, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.116541, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48709946, "relative_activity": 1.081815, "balance": 0.532344, "dry_up": 1.223948, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073554, "annualized_volatility": 0.318327, "from_high_reference": -0.347619, "from_low_reference": 0.116848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.963667, "fair_value_reference": 4.652168, "structural_low": 3.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.012397, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.008753, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.1983, "worst_return": -0.139059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061983, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.033137, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.381356, "worst_return": -0.227408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059052, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.086593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.350283, "worst_return": -0.066869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 3.955333, 4.138545, 4.530238, 4.812387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.75, "volume": 66612967, "typical_volume": 50701672.75, "trend": 5.062333, "fair_value": 4.663573, "relative_strength": -27.598241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.428713, "energy": 83.022719, "activity_lines": [ 3.870667, 4.033091, 4.423095, 4.724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.01, "volume": 48078400, "typical_volume": 47293333.75, "trend": 5.010333, "fair_value": 4.657364, "relative_strength": -20.833345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.108014, "energy": 65.639434, "activity_lines": [ 3.903333, 3.997818, 4.350857, 4.656108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.11, "volume": 48709946, "typical_volume": 45026126.05, "trend": 4.963667, "fair_value": 4.652168, "relative_strength": -22.376853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.853177, "energy": 60.023728, "activity_lines": [ 3.966667, 3.996727, 4.297762, 4.598022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }