{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b3004b3-be80-44aa-8edc-b9c35e851257", "symbol": "EMLV", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI EM Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.739, "architecture_energy": 32.242, "architecture_maturity": 65.897, "architecture_confidence": 82.286, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.12, "rotation_up": 31.22, "upward_expansion": 61.12, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.86, "downward_expansion": 22.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.889334, 36.093728, 35.613238, 34.730731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.564999, "trend_reference": 33.662667, "distance_from_trend": 0.086218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.138045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213251, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.217327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146957, "excess_performance": 0.064074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086218, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044042, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022173, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146957, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.435988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 454, "relative_activity": 0.111377, "balance": 0.435988, "dry_up": 3.272432, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027285, "annualized_volatility": 0.171159, "from_high_reference": -0.029205, "from_low_reference": 0.226808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.662667, "fair_value_reference": 30.138045, "structural_low": 29.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02324, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.036844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076985, "worst_return": -0.096605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038293, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.034153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184571, "worst_return": -0.021158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033912, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056636, "worst_return": -0.013777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"up", "direction": 67.96145, "energy": 70.356808, "activity_lines": [ 36.731667, 36.299728, 35.016524, 34.104796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.825001, "volume": 42179, "typical_volume": 3746.1, "trend": 33.153167, "fair_value": 29.968654, "relative_strength": -1.328824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.931715, "energy": 54.643668, "activity_lines": [ 36.095001, 36.116455, 35.111548, 34.222118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.830002, "volume": 7083, "typical_volume": 4063.75, "trend": 33.333334, "fair_value": 30.021218, "relative_strength": 1.623358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.55243, "energy": 42.944331, "activity_lines": [ 35.876668, 36.108274, 35.289357, 34.394817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.470001, "volume": 3641, "typical_volume": 4181.7, "trend": 33.495, "fair_value": 30.075, "relative_strength": 0.521332, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.674783, "energy": 29.153419, "activity_lines": [ 35.660668, 36.008365, 35.410286, 34.532667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.564999, "volume": 454, "typical_volume": 4076.25, "trend": 33.662667, "fair_value": 30.138045, "relative_strength": 2.217327, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.738926, "energy": 32.241808, "activity_lines": [ 35.889334, 36.093728, 35.613238, 34.730731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }