{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b41846c-7de7-45e0-a1fb-9b5b54b74dae", "symbol": "MQ", "name": "Marqeta Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.038, "architecture_energy": 14.356, "architecture_maturity": 30.292, "architecture_confidence": 51.535, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.6, "rotation_up": 44.77, "upward_expansion": 47.93, "deceleration": 33.39, "rotation_down": 28.42, "downward_expansion": 13.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.753333, 16.667273, 16.463714, 16.401591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.96, "trend_reference": 16.430667, "distance_from_trend": -0.028646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.012821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.047961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056738, "excess_performance": -0.244191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202511, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056738, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.099002, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9003713, "relative_activity": 0.572338, "balance": 1.099002, "dry_up": 0.385807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10789, "annualized_volatility": 0.426619, "from_high_reference": -0.39084, "from_low_reference": 0.078378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.430667, "fair_value_reference": 20.012821, "structural_low": 14.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037736, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.031664, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.397403, "worst_return": -0.336752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043165, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.05785, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.603774, "worst_return": -0.272045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.152284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079656, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.423868, "worst_return": -0.21576, "sufficient": false 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"Established", "return": 0.057621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041758, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043165, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.88, "volume": 40036407, "typical_volume": 24913301.75, "trend": 19.908, "fair_value": 48.132, "relative_strength": -16.373336, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.790189, "energy": 15.885252, "activity_lines": [ 16.367333, 16.128545, 16.205857, 16.311806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.49, "volume": 6132107, "typical_volume": 17670055.25, "trend": 16.648333, "fair_value": 20.10391, "relative_strength": -16.459933, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.522711, "energy": 17.053763, "activity_lines": [ 16.808, 16.392182, 16.331571, 16.360108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.07, "volume": 4790353, "typical_volume": 16629270.9, "trend": 16.569333, "fair_value": 20.074103, "relative_strength": -16.282755, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.303002, "energy": 22.87612, "activity_lines": [ 16.964, 16.564727, 16.407143, 16.387312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.36, "volume": 4351034, "typical_volume": 16007910.9, "trend": 16.529333, "fair_value": 20.055897, "relative_strength": -14.506464, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.922163, "energy": 28.992834, "activity_lines": [ 17.113333, 16.756727, 16.505619, 16.438323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.96, "volume": 9003713, "typical_volume": 15731447.65, "trend": 16.430667, "fair_value": 20.012821, "relative_strength": -24.047961, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.038312, "energy": 14.355714, "activity_lines": [ 16.753333, 16.667273, 16.463714, 16.401591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }