{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b439dc1-65f0-4e2b-b4ce-6efda7abc684", "symbol": "BTBD", "name": "Bt Brands Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.084, "architecture_energy": 44.434, "architecture_maturity": 53.094, "architecture_confidence": 91.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.88, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 29.79, "deceleration": 24.75, "rotation_down": 27.01, "downward_expansion": 66.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.167333, 1.139273, 1.209238, 1.287118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.22, "trend_reference": 1.357333, "distance_from_trend": -0.101179, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.610967, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.484235, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031746, "excess_performance": -0.2192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101179, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097252, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.265314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 310122, "relative_activity": 0.107558, "balance": 1.265314, "dry_up": 0.05868, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091526, "annualized_volatility": 1.077785, "from_high_reference": -0.728889, "from_low_reference": 0.184466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.357333, "fair_value_reference": 1.610967, "structural_low": 1.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.020833, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00663, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.318182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.177127, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.303448, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.094448, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.236188, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.614035, "worst_return": -0.255172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.286957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088435, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.097333, 1.109636, 1.264714, 1.32671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.12, "volume": 24282, "typical_volume": 2981968.65, "trend": 1.377333, "fair_value": 1.625519, "relative_strength": -33.227721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.722864, "energy": 49.344687, "activity_lines": [ 1.105333, 1.110364, 1.239381, 1.309419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.18, "volume": 248968, "typical_volume": 2883596.65, "trend": 1.368333, "fair_value": 1.61898, "relative_strength": -29.338494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.635662, "energy": 42.000022, "activity_lines": [ 1.134, 1.121273, 1.221762, 1.296688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.22, "volume": 310122, "typical_volume": 2883311.0, "trend": 1.357333, "fair_value": 1.610967, "relative_strength": -29.484235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.083941, "energy": 44.433847, "activity_lines": [ 1.167333, 1.139273, 1.209238, 1.287118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }