{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b4653d3-c3f9-4af8-bcf5-9bd4f42d6c0a", "symbol": "IE", "name": "Ivanhoe Electric Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.926, "architecture_energy": 45.888, "architecture_maturity": 62.226, "architecture_confidence": 91.998, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.73, "rotation_up": 23.91, "upward_expansion": 6.39, "deceleration": 58.56, "rotation_down": 52.55, "downward_expansion": 79.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.376667, 13.469636, 14.879809, 15.898387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.44, "trend_reference": 17.744, "distance_from_trend": -0.129847, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.388558, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.318393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345763, "excess_performance": -0.466184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129847, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10713, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345763, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87700, "relative_activity": 0.786759, "balance": 0.490872, "dry_up": 1.215349, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139423, "annualized_volatility": 0.817956, "from_high_reference": -0.464075, "from_low_reference": 0.398551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.744, "fair_value_reference": 14.388558, "structural_low": 11.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.017429, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.004806, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.309471, "worst_return": -0.268695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045522, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022884, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.758545, "worst_return": -0.313048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.092399, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03884, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.504819, "worst_return": -0.085903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.411048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", 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"down", "direction": -68.37211, "energy": 73.73927, "activity_lines": [ 14.415333, 15.543091, 16.592333, 17.73929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.78, "volume": 220600, "typical_volume": 117330.0, "trend": 19.005667, "fair_value": 14.598045, "relative_strength": -36.090925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.848454, "energy": 78.795106, "activity_lines": [ 13.722, 14.892545, 16.155571, 17.320946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.54, "volume": 165700, "typical_volume": 117055.0, "trend": 18.688, "fair_value": 14.54093, "relative_strength": -41.752591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.710178, "energy": 85.023812, "activity_lines": [ 12.826, 14.106364, 15.637095, 16.83929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.53, "volume": 199300, "typical_volume": 121335.0, "trend": 18.346, "fair_value": 14.484071, "relative_strength": -36.452471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.004231, "energy": 76.599723, "activity_lines": [ 12.534667, 13.634364, 15.269571, 16.442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 89200, "typical_volume": 116640.0, "trend": 18.02, "fair_value": 14.424904, "relative_strength": -36.054452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.394037, "energy": 70.846946, "activity_lines": [ 12.45, 13.25, 14.924429, 16.064839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.44, "volume": 87700, "typical_volume": 111470.0, "trend": 17.744, "fair_value": 14.388558, "relative_strength": -23.318393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.925924, "energy": 45.888165, "activity_lines": [ 13.376667, 13.469636, 14.879809, 15.898387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }