{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b49dc7a-8c86-4f5b-8e76-0ef7adcf6353", "symbol": "TLTE", "name": "FLEXSHARES TRUST MORNINGSTAR EMERG MKTS FACTOR TILT IDX", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.167, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.999, "architecture_energy": 15.956, "architecture_maturity": 23.374, "architecture_confidence": 92.991, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.6, "rotation_up": 20.24, "upward_expansion": 42.74, "deceleration": 83.64, "rotation_down": 40.21, "downward_expansion": 34.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.930407, 74.727654, 75.152551, 74.112196 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 75.3715, "trend_reference": 72.739386, "distance_from_trend": 0.036186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.441964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359467, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.023507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073544, "excess_performance": -0.052081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.359467, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073544, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.871076, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18871, "relative_activity": 0.816711, "balance": 0.871076, "dry_up": 0.803987, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046396, "annualized_volatility": 0.264379, "from_high_reference": -0.065201, "from_low_reference": 0.307999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.739386, "fair_value_reference": 55.441964, "structural_low": 64.607613, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011165, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000824, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.056682, "worst_return": -0.070459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031425, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.01475, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.097522, "worst_return": -0.041428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054617, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142348, "worst_return": -0.079473, "sufficient": 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74.6867, "volume": 48720, "typical_volume": 28201.35, "trend": 71.04444, "fair_value": 54.513914, "relative_strength": 2.481725, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.540864, "energy": 35.723492, "activity_lines": [ 76.629557, 76.638287, 74.860434, 73.382012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 76.4477, "volume": 21139, "typical_volume": 25521.55, "trend": 71.517586, "fair_value": 54.714507, "relative_strength": 3.299459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.243153, "energy": 31.314442, "activity_lines": [ 76.574684, 76.628963, 75.169399, 73.73061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.8319, "volume": 10973, "typical_volume": 24497.5, "trend": 71.858001, "fair_value": 54.894351, "relative_strength": -0.149907, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.878236, "energy": 18.255929, "activity_lines": [ 75.13696, 75.928904, 75.119429, 73.815404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.7057, "volume": 15686, "typical_volume": 24044.75, "trend": 72.157369, "fair_value": 55.063481, "relative_strength": 0.137652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.399723, "energy": 17.409502, "activity_lines": [ 73.993307, 75.305914, 75.062493, 73.870094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.9675, "volume": 28778, "typical_volume": 24099.85, "trend": 72.429056, "fair_value": 55.242274, "relative_strength": -0.705731, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.567983, "energy": 14.486931, "activity_lines": [ 73.449207, 74.772844, 75.006881, 73.922361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.3715, "volume": 18871, "typical_volume": 23106.1, "trend": 72.739386, "fair_value": 55.441964, "relative_strength": -1.023507, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.999323, "energy": 15.95573, "activity_lines": [ 73.930407, 74.727654, 75.152551, 74.112196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }