{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0b4d06a1-7179-451f-9b86-1b81af57a141",
    "symbol": "IQSA",
    "name": "Invesco Global Active ESG Equity UCITS ETF USD Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 85.038,
    "architecture_energy": 70.388,
    "architecture_maturity": 92.331,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.589,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.56,
        "rotation_up": 55.79,
        "upward_expansion": 83.0,
        "deceleration": 71.45,
        "rotation_down": 29.12,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        91.63157
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 98.580002,
    "trend_reference": 88.715667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.11119,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 72.457436,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360523,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.600022,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.177919,
    "excess_performance": 0.007027,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.11119,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060947,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.360523,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066907,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010939,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.177919,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.565217,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 72493,
      "relative_activity": 1.906411,
      "balance": 2.565217,
      "dry_up": 1.553763,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018774,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.104619,
      "from_high_reference": -0.007051,
      "from_low_reference": 0.332342
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 88.715667,
      "fair_value_reference": 72.457436,
      "structural_low": 79.589996,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.013351,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000811,
        "regime_survival": 0.725,
        "best_return": 0.07996,
        "worst_return": -0.094374,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.866667,
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        "worst_return": -0.144316,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.124596,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 26091.95,
        "trend": 81.899667,
        "fair_value": 68.649263,
        "relative_strength": -0.166828,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 80.208061,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 28430.35,
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        "relative_strength": -0.493859,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 86.38752,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 29834.3,
        "trend": 82.745,
        "fair_value": 69.174519,
        "relative_strength": 1.319393,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 83.262968,
        "energy": 89.29375,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 30800.55,
        "trend": 83.190334,
        "fair_value": 69.449423,
        "relative_strength": 1.859453,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.945764,
        "energy": 92.604389,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 92.519997,
        "volume": 39488,
        "typical_volume": 31999.0,
        "trend": 83.619333,
        "fair_value": 69.72109,
        "relative_strength": 1.620009,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 84.121334,
        "fair_value": 69.985321,
        "relative_strength": 2.385633,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 84.601,
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        "relative_strength": -0.033455,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 1.969951,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 90.961119,
        "activity_lines": [
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          88.01957
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 28531.45,
        "trend": 86.219667,
        "fair_value": 71.079167,
        "relative_strength": 0.010564,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 31540.5,
        "trend": 86.759334,
        "fair_value": 71.359359,
        "relative_strength": 0.726554,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.840583,
        "energy": 91.342733,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 95.220001,
        "volume": 55668,
        "typical_volume": 32574.45,
        "trend": 87.239667,
        "fair_value": 71.627115,
        "relative_strength": 0.692433,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.140368,
        "energy": 82.256242,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.820668,
          94.994001,
          92.133477,
          89.912667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 95.75,
        "volume": 40308,
        "typical_volume": 33381.4,
        "trend": 87.730334,
        "fair_value": 71.893654,
        "relative_strength": 1.372828,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.379502,
        "energy": 66.354701,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.802001,
          95.303273,
          92.748239,
          90.461721
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 95.489998,
        "volume": 67864,
        "typical_volume": 35449.7,
        "trend": 88.207,
        "fair_value": 72.164551,
        "relative_strength": 0.38486,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.805446,
        "energy": 63.075663,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.698666,
          95.469273,
          93.281572,
          90.962344
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 98.580002,
        "volume": 72493,
        "typical_volume": 38025.9,
        "trend": 88.715667,
        "fair_value": 72.457436,
        "relative_strength": 0.600022,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.038187,
        "energy": 70.387593,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.608,
          96.128546,
          94.047905,
          91.63157
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}