{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b52b128-e3d3-4422-a8b0-7a7206666550", "symbol": "XMCM", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.957, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.784, "architecture_energy": 19.519, "architecture_maturity": 64.817, "architecture_confidence": 83.142, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.83, "rotation_up": 16.25, "upward_expansion": 45.87, "deceleration": 87.96, "rotation_down": 43.19, "downward_expansion": 30.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.580667, 15.814891, 15.847486, 15.522713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.825, "trend_reference": 15.104316, "distance_from_trend": 0.047714, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.312423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.14031, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105168, "excess_performance": 0.053933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047714, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041403, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15357, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105168, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.646132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55325, "relative_activity": 1.042036, "balance": 0.646132, "dry_up": 1.467802, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03903, "annualized_volatility": 0.251743, "from_high_reference": -0.064163, "from_low_reference": 0.36162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.104316, "fair_value_reference": 11.312423, "structural_low": 13.026, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.251648, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.718476, "energy": 52.560815, "activity_lines": [ 16.3226, 16.270927, 15.793286, 15.378362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.254, "volume": 105625, "typical_volume": 46936.6, "trend": 14.88424, "fair_value": 11.224618, "relative_strength": 3.953257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.211676, "energy": 24.446565, "activity_lines": [ 15.944333, 16.097818, 15.792252, 15.407341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.432, "volume": 49274, "typical_volume": 46204.7, "trend": 14.964593, "fair_value": 11.253436, "relative_strength": 3.60046, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.64335, "energy": 23.999207, "activity_lines": [ 15.699133, 15.975255, 15.806952, 15.44268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.412, "volume": 101497, "typical_volume": 50787.2, "trend": 15.031897, "fair_value": 11.281726, "relative_strength": 1.973427, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.002152, "energy": 22.494365, "activity_lines": [ 15.5434, 15.853491, 15.811781, 15.471545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.825, "volume": 55325, "typical_volume": 53093.15, "trend": 15.104316, "fair_value": 11.312423, "relative_strength": 4.14031, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.784428, "energy": 19.518661, "activity_lines": [ 15.580667, 15.814891, 15.847486, 15.522713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }