{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b5b4b83-be77-473f-91a7-ca5de91d9825", "symbol": "MIR", "name": "Mirrabooka Investments Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.768, "architecture_energy": 21.318, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.744, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.16, "rotation_up": 43.75, "upward_expansion": 33.49, "deceleration": 47.33, "rotation_down": 14.05, "downward_expansion": 41.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.551467, 2.503481, 2.499562, 2.542901 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.59, "trend_reference": 2.641764, "distance_from_trend": -0.019595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.974728, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129332, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.509991, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130872, "excess_performance": -0.194578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074505, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010247, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1002556, "relative_activity": 1.592938, "balance": 0.899334, "dry_up": 1.251494, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032911, "annualized_volatility": 0.203201, "from_high_reference": -0.246876, "from_low_reference": 0.114032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.641764, "fair_value_reference": 2.974728, "structural_low": 2.324889, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.008301, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.001448, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.101818, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001513, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028678, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.11235, "worst_return": -0.145065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008773, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.058685, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.101038, "worst_return": -0.23192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.021847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", 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"typical_volume": 649401.8, "trend": 2.693344, "fair_value": 2.976422, "relative_strength": -13.484487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.774728, "energy": 43.308906, "activity_lines": [ 2.457328, 2.443904, 2.48883, 2.565047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.575706, "volume": 678067, "typical_volume": 621321.85, "trend": 2.677049, "fair_value": 2.97577, "relative_strength": -11.182918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.871817, "energy": 23.627721, "activity_lines": [ 2.503033, 2.467433, 2.493073, 2.557457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.52, "volume": 936276, "typical_volume": 625610.75, "trend": 2.658568, "fair_value": 2.975054, "relative_strength": -14.613078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.55749, "energy": 27.374214, "activity_lines": [ 2.521123, 2.479457, 2.492699, 2.547325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.59, "volume": 1002556, "typical_volume": 629375.45, "trend": 2.641764, "fair_value": 2.974728, "relative_strength": -14.509991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.767688, "energy": 21.318432, "activity_lines": [ 2.551467, 2.503481, 2.499562, 2.542901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }