{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b5ea92b-458a-447c-8277-b6f9a21708bf", "symbol": "298A", "name": "GVA TECH INC", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-04", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.074, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.622, "architecture_energy": 5.511, "architecture_maturity": 9.933, "architecture_confidence": 47.688, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.93, "rotation_up": 28.11, "upward_expansion": 26.96, "deceleration": 41.55, "rotation_down": 30.34, "downward_expansion": 53.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 332.8, 331.418182, 325.538095, 332.991398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 350.0, "trend_reference": 346.1, "distance_from_trend": 0.011268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 507.258427, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310016, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.455116, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056604, "excess_performance": -0.225607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310016, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179418, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.364551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.997662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41800, "relative_activity": 0.69748, "balance": 0.997662, "dry_up": 0.73127, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08967, "annualized_volatility": 0.453861, "from_high_reference": -0.623656, "from_low_reference": 0.291513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 346.1, "fair_value_reference": 507.258427, "structural_low": 271.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022436, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-09-04", "end": "2026-09-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 604.0, "volume": 4393600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 615.0, "volume": 324100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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"direction": -28.612789, "energy": 18.738837, "activity_lines": [ 328.333333, 328.818182, 326.504762, 337.776344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 322.0, "volume": 28400, "typical_volume": 79605.0, "trend": 355.066667, "fair_value": 511.229885, "relative_strength": -45.762018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.671677, "energy": 23.284232, "activity_lines": [ 325.333333, 328.818182, 325.147619, 335.309677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 319.0, "volume": 68200, "typical_volume": 81590.0, "trend": 349.866667, "fair_value": 509.045455, "relative_strength": -44.886107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.154194, "energy": 21.549071, "activity_lines": [ 323.6, 327.418182, 323.733333, 332.982796 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 350.0, "volume": 41800, "typical_volume": 59930.0, "trend": 346.1, "fair_value": 507.258427, "relative_strength": -36.455116, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.621855, "energy": 5.510828, "activity_lines": [ 332.8, 331.418182, 325.538095, 332.991398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }