{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b606978-1dfe-4180-92d8-0be8586117a3", "symbol": "2913", "name": "Taiwan Tea Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.051, "architecture_energy": 35.461, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.65, "rotation_up": 22.74, "upward_expansion": 5.92, "deceleration": 47.82, "rotation_down": 51.98, "downward_expansion": 76.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.99, 11.089091, 11.126905, 11.369247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 11.785, "distance_from_trend": -0.075095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.59359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.380456, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.731088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148438, "excess_performance": -0.58981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068748, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.380456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.407311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148438, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6272796, "relative_activity": 0.5407, "balance": 0.369662, "dry_up": 0.822267, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052929, "annualized_volatility": 0.200924, "from_high_reference": -0.287582, "from_low_reference": 0.033175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.785, "fair_value_reference": 17.59359, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.009934, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.032027, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.122977, "worst_return": -0.188976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.04401, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.100381, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.080311, "worst_return": -0.191816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069685, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.173372, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.111399, "worst_return": -0.227384, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037559, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016787, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114213, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111354, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.466993, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 24.5, "volume": 194698240, "typical_volume": 83198487.55, "trend": 22.833334, "fair_value": 20.029487, "relative_strength": 1.803802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -34.848793, "energy": 19.477075, "activity_lines": [ 11.26, 11.19, 11.259762, 11.561183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.95, "volume": 14088552, "typical_volume": 11646799.1, "trend": 11.938333, "fair_value": 17.816987, "relative_strength": -38.949488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.318385, "energy": 22.068975, "activity_lines": [ 11.18, 11.158182, 11.209048, 11.491935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.0, "volume": 8870325, "typical_volume": 11752078.55, "trend": 11.863333, "fair_value": 17.71859, "relative_strength": -39.163923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.934161, "energy": 31.363764, "activity_lines": [ 11.093333, 11.134545, 11.169286, 11.431398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.9, "volume": 6272796, "typical_volume": 11601246.9, "trend": 11.785, "fair_value": 17.59359, "relative_strength": -40.731088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.051299, "energy": 35.460656, "activity_lines": [ 10.99, 11.089091, 11.126905, 11.369247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }