{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b67045f-ee8a-4e07-a30f-746bd50ae1f5", "symbol": "NPK", "name": "New Plus Knitting Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.717, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.149, "architecture_energy": 61.037, "architecture_maturity": 8.003, "architecture_confidence": 56.719, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.66, "rotation_up": 69.41, "upward_expansion": 56.41, "deceleration": 29.42, "rotation_down": 21.39, "downward_expansion": 24.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.673333, 13.343636, 13.154128, 13.246278 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.9, "trend_reference": 13.237608, "distance_from_trend": 0.050039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.154678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.389291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124637, "excess_performance": -0.067688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00511, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062343, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.676768, "dry_up": 1.451613, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02933, "annualized_volatility": 0.395925, "from_high_reference": -0.291479, "from_low_reference": 0.288221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.237608, "fair_value_reference": 13.154678, "structural_low": 11.967175, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007353, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.037836, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.116883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067129, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.082666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330435, "worst_return": -0.146041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038233, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.045161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 13.137672, "fair_value": 13.232293, "relative_strength": -18.928328, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.676798, "energy": 35.899843, "activity_lines": [ 12.793333, 12.887876, 13.237248, 13.198668 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.8, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 4880.0, "trend": 13.122926, "fair_value": 13.222541, "relative_strength": -18.156132, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.46928, "energy": 29.196414, "activity_lines": [ 12.813333, 12.843151, 13.186252, 13.176882 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4705.0, "trend": 13.11472, "fair_value": 13.203986, "relative_strength": -16.138049, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.245551, "energy": 29.559195, "activity_lines": [ 12.84, 12.818952, 13.131758, 13.156049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4680.0, "trend": 13.116323, "fair_value": 13.188574, "relative_strength": -19.046862, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.008427, "energy": 30.733518, "activity_lines": [ 12.82, 12.806364, 13.075165, 13.135744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.9, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 4810.0, "trend": 13.085293, "fair_value": 13.173803, "relative_strength": -18.38432, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.126106, "energy": 33.068661, "activity_lines": [ 12.84, 12.82, 13.026934, 13.121788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.7, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 4165.0, "trend": 13.083562, "fair_value": 13.164039, "relative_strength": -20.062311, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.85991, "energy": 37.325789, "activity_lines": [ 12.793333, 12.796364, 12.958482, 13.09693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.9, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 2705.0, "trend": 13.128371, "fair_value": 13.158823, "relative_strength": -12.518432, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.778189, "energy": 17.876822, "activity_lines": [ 13.16, 13.001818, 13.015774, 13.149604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2690.0, "trend": 13.173181, "fair_value": 13.15675, "relative_strength": -11.1925, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.972731, "energy": 38.825348, "activity_lines": [ 13.453333, 13.189091, 13.080678, 13.199386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1085.0, "trend": 13.237608, "fair_value": 13.154678, "relative_strength": -10.389291, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.148608, "energy": 61.037183, "activity_lines": [ 13.673333, 13.343636, 13.154128, 13.246278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }