{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b6c8138-8908-4ace-b41e-928cfbac1a5b", "symbol": "300085", "name": "Shenzhen InfoGem Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.306, "architecture_energy": 38.766, "architecture_maturity": 27.348, "architecture_confidence": 93.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.73, "rotation_up": 17.55, "upward_expansion": 4.83, "deceleration": 47.88, "rotation_down": 52.66, "downward_expansion": 75.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.710667, 30.436545, 32.545333, 34.152107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.09, "trend_reference": 36.229, "distance_from_trend": -0.141848, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.283205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.180937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19456, "excess_performance": -0.201959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090325, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.419932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655411, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 253895126, "relative_activity": 1.332766, "balance": 0.655411, "dry_up": 1.485144, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18997, "annualized_volatility": 0.760473, "from_high_reference": -0.497495, "from_low_reference": 0.262794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.229, "fair_value_reference": 29.283205, "structural_low": 24.620001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.026345, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.008946, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 2.20892, "worst_return": -0.292857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01404, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018017, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.778947, "worst_return": -0.283876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.094276, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.079216, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 4.002339, "worst_return": -0.388469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044785, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.31248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195215, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": 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316137478, "typical_volume": 185267162.65, "trend": 36.904333, "fair_value": 29.041474, "relative_strength": -36.429076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.81772, "energy": 41.666191, "activity_lines": [ 30.272, 30.887818, 33.444809, 34.969097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.68, "volume": 242959185, "typical_volume": 191057495.15, "trend": 36.529, "fair_value": 29.156731, "relative_strength": -26.512484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.575894, "energy": 41.444276, "activity_lines": [ 29.545334, 30.440182, 32.904809, 34.503011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.09, "volume": 253895126, "typical_volume": 190502472.3, "trend": 36.229, "fair_value": 29.283205, "relative_strength": -26.180937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.306409, "energy": 38.765513, "activity_lines": [ 29.710667, 30.436545, 32.545333, 34.152107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }