{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b6f59f8-dea6-4e70-92b0-676b8e3c92d4", "symbol": "601188", "name": "Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.692, "architecture_energy": 45.274, "architecture_maturity": 94.491, "architecture_confidence": 66.689, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.45, "rotation_up": 26.58, "upward_expansion": 19.03, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 46.82, "downward_expansion": 71.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.841352, 2.839385, 2.971213, 3.092459 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.83, "trend_reference": 3.253895, "distance_from_trend": -0.130273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.447243, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.719029, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226776, "excess_performance": -0.183572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066493, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034236, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226776, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633705, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79647129, "relative_activity": 1.29407, "balance": 0.633705, "dry_up": 1.09137, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057175, "annualized_volatility": 0.221931, "from_high_reference": -0.270619, "from_low_reference": 0.051316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.253895, "fair_value_reference": 3.447243, "structural_low": 2.691865, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.008935, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012467, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.253378, "worst_return": -0.20403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003378, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013239, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.11746, "worst_return": -0.162565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055161, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000851, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.077441, "worst_return": 0.025556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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84.423484, "activity_lines": [ 2.821499, 2.901941, 3.062358, 3.182696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.79, "volume": 62435664, "typical_volume": 68549371.3, "trend": 3.298562, "fair_value": 3.451629, "relative_strength": -15.118143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.916551, "energy": 64.563775, "activity_lines": [ 2.813482, 2.863998, 3.02404, 3.148337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.88, "volume": 63479894, "typical_volume": 64302827.1, "trend": 3.277562, "fair_value": 3.449956, "relative_strength": -12.31971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.705623, "energy": 55.208948, "activity_lines": [ 2.840057, 2.853146, 2.998198, 3.121333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.83, "volume": 79647129, "typical_volume": 61547752.25, "trend": 3.253895, "fair_value": 3.447243, "relative_strength": -15.719029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.691925, "energy": 45.273676, "activity_lines": [ 2.841352, 2.839385, 2.971213, 3.092459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }