{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b6fe39c-91c9-49f8-8d24-bef8861ef408", "symbol": "WTRE", "name": "WISDOMTREE TRUST NEW ECONOMY REAL ESTATE FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.273, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.52, "architecture_energy": 15.799, "architecture_maturity": 34.818, "architecture_confidence": 76.44, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.12, "rotation_up": 15.96, "upward_expansion": 41.49, "deceleration": 79.42, "rotation_down": 43.25, "downward_expansion": 37.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.0773, 24.314788, 24.660776, 24.377351 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.2597, "trend_reference": 24.009657, "distance_from_trend": 0.010414, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.060423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.670197, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063916, "excess_performance": -0.061709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010414, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272779, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063916, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12184, "relative_activity": 0.734844, "balance": 0.508543, "dry_up": 0.577293, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043808, "annualized_volatility": 0.21474, "from_high_reference": -0.156454, "from_low_reference": 0.287337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.009657, "fair_value_reference": 19.060423, "structural_low": 20.86, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013329, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.020532, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.089996, "worst_return": -0.083161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018092, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.061343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106102, "worst_return": -0.060216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037352, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230696, "worst_return": -0.066801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033079, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039131, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117047, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", 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24.327358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.0575, "volume": 7968, "typical_volume": 16145.4, "trend": 23.868782, "fair_value": 18.954577, "relative_strength": -1.938475, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.398326, "energy": 20.158808, "activity_lines": [ 24.072707, 24.596033, 24.695961, 24.345544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.0487, "volume": 11027, "typical_volume": 16379.95, "trend": 23.946609, "fair_value": 19.006622, "relative_strength": -3.13168, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.815233, "energy": 18.48082, "activity_lines": [ 24.0046, 24.41973, 24.672259, 24.357152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.2597, "volume": 12184, "typical_volume": 16580.4, "trend": 24.009657, "fair_value": 19.060423, "relative_strength": -5.670197, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.52034, "energy": 15.798583, "activity_lines": [ 24.0773, 24.314788, 24.660776, 24.377351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }