{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b72054a-3902-4a90-bc7f-0dbfc04b2618", "symbol": "SUPN", "name": "Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.428, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.056, "architecture_energy": 23.312, "architecture_maturity": 28.072, "architecture_confidence": 79.453, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.84, "rotation_up": 21.45, "upward_expansion": 1.95, "deceleration": 55.26, "rotation_down": 38.13, "downward_expansion": 70.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.657333, 46.709636, 47.137381, 47.916022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.64, "trend_reference": 48.815333, "distance_from_trend": -0.024077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.090673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.126727, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077638, "excess_performance": -0.265092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010139, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28442, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077638, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.080716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11943406, "relative_activity": 3.17983, "balance": 1.080716, "dry_up": 1.337607, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073782, "annualized_volatility": 0.280314, "from_high_reference": -0.201743, "from_low_reference": 0.181548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.815333, "fair_value_reference": 37.090673, "structural_low": 42.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.035853, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.002275, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.244867, "worst_return": -0.137025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.124365, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.02127, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.389373, "worst_return": -0.151123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.336645, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.309212, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.631014, "worst_return": -0.177453, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 3362583.4, "trend": 49.092333, "fair_value": 36.909904, "relative_strength": -12.123475, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.010385, "energy": 21.116701, "activity_lines": [ 47.432, 46.796182, 47.503952, 48.287204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.63, "volume": 2625705, "typical_volume": 3333455.4, "trend": 48.931, "fair_value": 36.989712, "relative_strength": -15.584927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.314039, "energy": 24.976048, "activity_lines": [ 46.469333, 46.446727, 47.164762, 47.999312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.64, "volume": 11943406, "typical_volume": 3755988.75, "trend": 48.815333, "fair_value": 37.090673, "relative_strength": -14.126727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.055625, "energy": 23.311707, "activity_lines": [ 46.657333, 46.709636, 47.137381, 47.916022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }