{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b83c871-1e5b-4637-830c-53f573414974", "symbol": "ORS", "name": "Orsero S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.991, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.015, "architecture_energy": 17.701, "architecture_maturity": 48.652, "architecture_confidence": 46.767, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.13, "rotation_up": 47.27, "upward_expansion": 35.4, "deceleration": 36.85, "rotation_down": 20.42, "downward_expansion": 19.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.345334, 16.224, 15.924403, 15.951476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.32, "trend_reference": 16.322805, "distance_from_trend": -0.000172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.878858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.121272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079118, "excess_performance": -0.25001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013715, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041923, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.11858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175055, "relative_activity": 1.249938, "balance": 1.11858, "dry_up": 0.902934, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048454, "annualized_volatility": 0.392994, "from_high_reference": -0.166216, "from_low_reference": 0.270707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.322805, "fair_value_reference": 13.878858, "structural_low": 12.843246, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0199, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.026608, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.118421, "worst_return": -0.06525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029364, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.058838, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.186977, "worst_return": -0.054052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.166862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.092582, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.37648, "worst_return": -0.06015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055285, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"energy": 20.281801, "activity_lines": [ 16.184, 15.829885, 15.652121, 15.98411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.620001, "volume": 126417, "typical_volume": 179714.65, "trend": 16.481994, "fair_value": 13.788237, "relative_strength": -11.902239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.989309, "energy": 27.819397, "activity_lines": [ 16.410667, 16.004, 15.7356, 15.990934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.040001, "volume": 118047, "typical_volume": 172582.65, "trend": 16.434922, "fair_value": 13.818044, "relative_strength": -14.770485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.699325, "energy": 22.804467, "activity_lines": [ 16.372001, 16.062546, 15.774507, 15.962419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.32, "volume": 86308, "typical_volume": 162188.85, "trend": 16.374686, "fair_value": 13.847825, "relative_strength": -13.762498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.609029, "energy": 32.036302, "activity_lines": [ 16.392001, 16.153819, 15.850111, 15.955004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.32, "volume": 175055, "typical_volume": 140050.9, "trend": 16.322805, "fair_value": 13.878858, "relative_strength": -16.121272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.015411, "energy": 17.701092, "activity_lines": [ 16.345334, 16.224, 15.924403, 15.951476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }