{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b88dba6-ba2f-41c4-aa4d-45b36e796774", "symbol": "UVCR", "name": "PT Trimegah Karya Pratama Tbk", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.255, "architecture_energy": 28.422, "architecture_maturity": 29.589, "architecture_confidence": 37.428, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.05, "rotation_up": 22.19, "upward_expansion": 14.52, "deceleration": 65.05, "rotation_down": 41.26, "downward_expansion": 64.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.666667, 145.472727, 161.659797, 162.616861 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 141.0, "trend_reference": 162.870943, "distance_from_trend": -0.134284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 107.944962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.182402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160714, "excess_performance": 0.050374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134284, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.883054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111824, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.268472, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.030504, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 155393700, "relative_activity": 1.069262, "balance": 2.030504, "dry_up": 1.222719, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164991, "annualized_volatility": 0.871511, "from_high_reference": -0.411197, "from_low_reference": 1.431034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.870943, "fair_value_reference": 107.944962, "structural_low": 96.7854, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06015, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.092661, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.770584, "worst_return": -0.358491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045045, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076096, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.493544, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.293333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.359347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.293333, "worst_return": -0.293333, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064935, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.38843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.358491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.393443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.259669, 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"direction": -33.710649, "energy": 49.452447, "activity_lines": [ 142.2, 149.699517, 167.737821, 166.10371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.0, "volume": 143559500, "typical_volume": 132726050.0, "trend": 166.23761, "fair_value": 107.916865, "relative_strength": 30.156053, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.199046, "energy": 26.447371, "activity_lines": [ 148.6, 149.0, 166.884829, 165.518488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 145.0, "volume": 154907600, "typical_volume": 140115955.0, "trend": 164.73761, "fair_value": 107.953303, "relative_strength": 17.970722, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.225161, "energy": 24.813256, "activity_lines": [ 148.733333, 147.381818, 164.56517, 164.14832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 141.0, "volume": 155393700, "typical_volume": 145327950.0, "trend": 162.870943, "fair_value": 107.944962, "relative_strength": 11.182402, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.254848, "energy": 28.422353, "activity_lines": [ 146.666667, 145.472727, 161.659797, 162.616861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }