{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b8d08f4-403c-4cda-861a-d975089b3765", "symbol": "XLU", "name": "SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST STATE STREET UTLTS SLCT SCTR SPDR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 53.846, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.372, "architecture_energy": 18.675, "architecture_maturity": 28.607, "architecture_confidence": 73.91, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.4, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 12.62, "deceleration": 48.8, "rotation_down": 43.94, "downward_expansion": 42.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.671333, 44.978514, 44.986692, 45.138323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 43.61, "trend_reference": 45.078965, "distance_from_trend": -0.032586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.661673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.120157, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012961, "excess_performance": -0.112664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157941, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.598921, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124421113, "relative_activity": 1.241491, "balance": 0.598921, "dry_up": 0.979782, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036334, "annualized_volatility": 0.191398, "from_high_reference": -0.08584, "from_low_reference": 0.082252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.078965, "fair_value_reference": 37.661673, "structural_low": 42.759046, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013087, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.005857, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.119113, "worst_return": -0.056642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014857, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001801, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.106113, "worst_return": -0.082047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012961, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012815, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.226629, "worst_return": 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"fair_value": 37.47691, "relative_strength": -2.953087, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.871687, "energy": 29.904201, "activity_lines": [ 45.738667, 45.366565, 45.237063, 45.270983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.35, "volume": 100886062, "typical_volume": 101298716.05, "trend": 45.032558, "fair_value": 37.572519, "relative_strength": -7.782642, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.650289, "energy": 9.33613, "activity_lines": [ 45.266667, 45.233327, 45.14167, 45.230101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.61, "volume": 124421113, "typical_volume": 100219099.9, "trend": 45.078965, "fair_value": 37.661673, "relative_strength": -12.120157, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.371916, "energy": 18.674863, "activity_lines": [ 44.671333, 44.978514, 44.986692, 45.138323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }