{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b8e002c-6ef6-44c5-aebc-fe396db6070b", "symbol": "FMB", "name": "FIRST TRUST MANAGED MUNICIPAL ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.127, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.119, "architecture_energy": 49.567, "architecture_maturity": 2.369, "architecture_confidence": 69.536, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.89, "rotation_up": 10.91, "upward_expansion": 8.58, "deceleration": 43.61, "rotation_down": 68.39, "downward_expansion": 77.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.519599, 50.743046, 50.812688, 50.822655 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.61, "trend_reference": 50.84475, "distance_from_trend": -0.004617, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.59611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.324233, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007166, "excess_performance": -0.19462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027115, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007166, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.127445, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 725439, "relative_activity": 1.019008, "balance": 1.127445, "dry_up": 1.192548, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007138, "annualized_volatility": 0.038083, "from_high_reference": -0.018311, "from_low_reference": 0.050262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.84475, "fair_value_reference": 48.59611, "structural_low": 49.963256, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.001754, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.007147, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.037481, "worst_return": -0.03073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021796, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.021984, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.0652, "worst_return": -0.078246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050311, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.132411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067306, "worst_return": -0.059452, "sufficient": false }, { 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50.832983, "fair_value": 48.480235, "relative_strength": -12.969003, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.061955, "energy": 54.126594, "activity_lines": [ 51.141121, 51.05997, 50.93544, 50.908754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.887493, "volume": 996380, "typical_volume": 692619.1, "trend": 50.852699, "fair_value": 48.509854, "relative_strength": -9.213367, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.725535, "energy": 28.994446, "activity_lines": [ 51.058538, 51.046281, 50.935748, 50.912271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.2798, "volume": 888854, "typical_volume": 705670.45, "trend": 50.850553, "fair_value": 48.53668, "relative_strength": -8.592289, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.046011, "energy": 18.503611, "activity_lines": [ 50.787797, 50.921724, 50.881166, 50.87531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.27, "volume": 785262, "typical_volume": 712396.55, "trend": 50.845595, "fair_value": 48.56502, "relative_strength": -8.793179, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.100339, "energy": 49.472909, "activity_lines": [ 50.566811, 50.799248, 50.829406, 50.837855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.61, "volume": 725439, "typical_volume": 711907.2, "trend": 50.84475, "fair_value": 48.59611, "relative_strength": -12.324233, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.118945, "energy": 49.567325, "activity_lines": [ 50.519599, 50.743046, 50.812688, 50.822655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }