{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b922473-f0b7-45b4-a8b8-ca9179a8c1f9", "symbol": "SPXS", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.415, "architecture_energy": 66.365, "architecture_maturity": 78.836, "architecture_confidence": 48.114, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.98, "rotation_up": 50.23, "upward_expansion": 80.51, "deceleration": 74.24, "rotation_down": 29.11, "downward_expansion": 11.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.201467, 13.151782, 12.963352, 12.66868 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.472, "trend_reference": 12.319933, "distance_from_trend": 0.093512, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 781.028961, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.982751, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -97.166493, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157388, "excess_performance": 0.040726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.94891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.982751, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002379, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.971665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157388, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.055922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237857, "relative_activity": 1.066253, "balance": 1.055922, "dry_up": 1.356035, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018214, "annualized_volatility": 0.118021, "from_high_reference": -0.988656, "from_low_reference": 0.214569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.319933, "fair_value_reference": 781.028961, "structural_low": 11.092, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010916, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007034, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.071784, "worst_return": -0.015209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059735, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.067025, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.149325, "worst_return": -0.01544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.160415, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.158944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181666, "worst_return": 0.097679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": 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[ 13.139067, 13.077709, 12.762371, 12.482985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.126, "volume": 363789, "typical_volume": 223712.2, "trend": 12.224533, "fair_value": 790.982859, "relative_strength": -97.45972, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.218035, "energy": 58.726312, "activity_lines": [ 13.1416, 13.096145, 12.830371, 12.544232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.95, "volume": 186992, "typical_volume": 223557.85, "trend": 12.268533, "fair_value": 785.982987, "relative_strength": -97.387426, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.036039, "energy": 58.125703, "activity_lines": [ 13.084, 13.076655, 12.875152, 12.591037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.472, "volume": 237857, "typical_volume": 223077.55, "trend": 12.319933, "fair_value": 781.028961, "relative_strength": -97.166493, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.415174, "energy": 66.36475, "activity_lines": [ 13.201467, 13.151782, 12.963352, 12.66868 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }