{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b948f97-1217-4c50-a31f-310325953996", "symbol": "MHC", "name": "Manhattan Gold Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.711, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.001, "architecture_energy": 12.11, "architecture_maturity": 35.044, "architecture_confidence": 51.683, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.04, "rotation_up": 36.08, "upward_expansion": 27.43, "deceleration": 35.04, "rotation_down": 25.02, "downward_expansion": 50.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023133, 0.022527, 0.022548, 0.022955 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.023667, "distance_from_trend": 0.014085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.036496, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342387, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.133457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04, "excess_performance": -0.103706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014085, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045699, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051222, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.387669, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5218651, "relative_activity": 1.444138, "balance": 3.387669, "dry_up": 1.471126, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147436, "annualized_volatility": 0.625595, "from_high_reference": -0.294118, "from_low_reference": 0.263158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023667, "fair_value_reference": 0.036496, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.023772, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.300001, "worst_return": -0.33334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.111113, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.145142, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.272729, "worst_return": -0.399994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.202382, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.268315, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.024233, "fair_value": 0.039699, "relative_strength": -17.131847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.329495, "energy": 37.7069, "activity_lines": [ 0.0214, 0.021909, 0.022524, 0.023222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.021, "volume": 6392845, "typical_volume": 4638437.25, "trend": 0.0241, "fair_value": 0.038765, "relative_strength": -12.959616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.339741, "energy": 38.425825, "activity_lines": [ 0.021133, 0.021655, 0.022305, 0.023013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 4983676, "typical_volume": 4727834.3, "trend": 0.023967, "fair_value": 0.038004, "relative_strength": -4.306081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.147489, "energy": 22.219031, "activity_lines": [ 0.021667, 0.021818, 0.0223, 0.022942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.024, "volume": 4669527, "typical_volume": 3957388.15, "trend": 0.023833, "fair_value": 0.037303, "relative_strength": -2.195052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.723374, "energy": 11.872361, "activity_lines": [ 0.022533, 0.0222, 0.022414, 0.022944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 5218651, "typical_volume": 3613678.5, "trend": 0.023667, "fair_value": 0.036496, "relative_strength": -5.133457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.000854, "energy": 12.109953, "activity_lines": [ 0.023133, 0.022527, 0.022548, 0.022955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }