{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b94c425-e2f4-49d2-9367-6f7d8593c4ef", "symbol": "688234", "name": "SICC Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.095, "architecture_energy": 32.962, "architecture_maturity": 47.503, "architecture_confidence": 53.066, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.81, "rotation_up": 14.13, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 69.52, "rotation_down": 63.58, "downward_expansion": 41.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.817333, 116.033818, 122.975286, 117.241312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 102.489998, "trend_reference": 110.270334, "distance_from_trend": -0.070557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.148013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.101493, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.175074, "excess_performance": 0.218278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150671, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.461053, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071015, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206404, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175074, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64809995, "relative_activity": 1.060744, "balance": 0.549004, "dry_up": 1.075266, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.280365, "annualized_volatility": 0.945226, "from_high_reference": -0.432974, "from_low_reference": 0.740955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.270334, "fair_value_reference": 70.148013, "structural_low": 71.800003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.12007, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.08909, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.456561, "worst_return": -0.279725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.248142, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.223433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.576635, "worst_return": -0.266283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021472, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.555174, "worst_return": -0.233637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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129.915455, 127.425667, 119.215183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.650002, "volume": 65961209, "typical_volume": 59191185.9, "trend": 109.816667, "fair_value": 69.940321, "relative_strength": -6.224275, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.158101, "energy": 33.770338, "activity_lines": [ 103.943334, 120.924728, 124.455096, 117.714001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.489998, "volume": 64809995, "typical_volume": 61098620.0, "trend": 110.270334, "fair_value": 70.148013, "relative_strength": 7.101493, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.095344, "energy": 32.961571, "activity_lines": [ 99.817333, 116.033818, 122.975286, 117.241312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }