{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b9709cb-7508-42f3-833f-2959b396fbdd", "symbol": "SXLY", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.658, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.267, "architecture_energy": 21.162, "architecture_maturity": 24.179, "architecture_confidence": 75.419, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.11, "rotation_up": 40.72, "upward_expansion": 55.01, "deceleration": 75.28, "rotation_down": 26.03, "downward_expansion": 23.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.336, 72.213818, 72.545619, 72.01785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 74.639999, "trend_reference": 71.756, "distance_from_trend": 0.040192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.674904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.324148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056027, "excess_performance": -0.026856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210217, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101456, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.347616, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2003, "relative_activity": 0.95186, "balance": 5.347616, "dry_up": 0.443378, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03268, "annualized_volatility": 0.238049, "from_high_reference": -0.018798, "from_low_reference": 0.155776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.756, "fair_value_reference": 61.674904, "structural_low": 64.580002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04106, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.009138, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.074036, "worst_return": -0.036961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.137845, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.073076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243931, "worst_return": -0.103369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109903, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.043646, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.329287, "worst_return": -0.016844, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049675, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", 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"relative_strength": -8.226459, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.085395, "energy": 14.972612, "activity_lines": [ 72.67, 72.728183, 72.527953, 72.066474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.75, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 2742.5, "trend": 71.818667, "fair_value": 61.370256, "relative_strength": -14.047374, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.333612, "energy": 30.524538, "activity_lines": [ 71.074667, 71.771091, 72.163001, 71.790022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.489998, "volume": 1422, "typical_volume": 2376.05, "trend": 71.78, "fair_value": 61.512308, "relative_strength": -7.945574, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.588482, "energy": 9.938326, "activity_lines": [ 71.400666, 71.778546, 72.263524, 71.833334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.639999, "volume": 2003, "typical_volume": 2104.3, "trend": 71.756, "fair_value": 61.674904, "relative_strength": -6.324148, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.266961, "energy": 21.161634, "activity_lines": [ 72.336, 72.213818, 72.545619, 72.01785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }