{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b98162f-d67c-4736-b152-e733922527ab", "symbol": "ALFUM", "name": "Fill Up Media S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.658, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.008, "architecture_energy": 1.027, "architecture_maturity": 30.129, "architecture_confidence": 71.518, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.28, "rotation_up": 30.98, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 38.45, "rotation_down": 35.17, "downward_expansion": 35.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.314667, 6.300364, 6.338, 6.322108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.4, "trend_reference": 6.331, "distance_from_trend": 0.010899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.494231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01451, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.835313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015873, "excess_performance": -0.037438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010899, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02331, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021605, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015873, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.041571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15939, "relative_activity": 2.124874, "balance": 3.041571, "dry_up": 1.161122, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063462, "annualized_volatility": 0.305206, "from_high_reference": -0.152318, "from_low_reference": 0.185185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.331, "fair_value_reference": 6.494231, "structural_low": 5.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.015483, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.03222, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.056452, "worst_return": -0.105691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04918, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006961, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.12069, "worst_return": -0.095588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041819, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.065574, "worst_return": -0.088235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 6.24, "volume": 291, "typical_volume": 7529.2, "trend": 6.367667, "fair_value": 6.489231, "relative_strength": -7.128059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.891085, "energy": 26.048474, "activity_lines": [ 6.261333, 6.308, 6.33519, 6.326968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.42, "volume": 13990, "typical_volume": 7982.7, "trend": 6.365, "fair_value": 6.490769, "relative_strength": -4.513311, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.64565, "energy": 13.542695, "activity_lines": [ 6.310667, 6.315273, 6.346952, 6.330344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.18, "volume": 4619, "typical_volume": 7011.7, "trend": 6.342667, "fair_value": 6.492179, "relative_strength": -9.171802, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.654164, "energy": 18.448809, "activity_lines": [ 6.272, 6.286545, 6.33219, 6.318409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.4, "volume": 15939, "typical_volume": 7501.15, "trend": 6.331, "fair_value": 6.494231, "relative_strength": -7.835313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.007776, "energy": 1.027244, "activity_lines": [ 6.314667, 6.300364, 6.338, 6.322108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }