{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b99d39a-5ecb-4442-ba0f-e916a97b86dc", "symbol": "SDF", "name": "K+S Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.855, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.288, "architecture_energy": 30.612, "architecture_maturity": 54.027, "architecture_confidence": 65.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 41.62, "upward_expansion": 21.69, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 23.97, "downward_expansion": 58.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.418, 14.069455, 14.311358, 14.58074 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.51, "trend_reference": 14.696674, "distance_from_trend": -0.012702, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.181729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.536868, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035933, "excess_performance": -0.138314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035933, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.227403, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 782, "relative_activity": 1.546677, "balance": 2.227403, "dry_up": 1.044798, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044092, "annualized_volatility": 0.458256, "from_high_reference": -0.215524, "from_low_reference": 0.396128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.696674, "fair_value_reference": 13.181729, "structural_low": 13.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0053, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.0163, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.246512, "worst_return": -0.184012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002353, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.029081, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.130845, "worst_return": -0.124192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04538, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.338339, "worst_return": -0.078414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-19.881498, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.848799, "energy": 69.038734, "activity_lines": [ 13.317333, 13.740201, 14.45873, 14.591893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.34, "volume": 282, "typical_volume": 715.45, "trend": 14.4917, "fair_value": 13.219697, "relative_strength": -10.210642, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.976871, "energy": 46.379996, "activity_lines": [ 13.633333, 13.773273, 14.40021, 14.586805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.46, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": 700.45, "trend": 14.566539, "fair_value": 13.208673, "relative_strength": -10.051799, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.159888, "energy": 24.176093, "activity_lines": [ 13.941333, 13.844909, 14.356271, 14.58476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.63, "volume": 599, "typical_volume": 594.35, "trend": 14.635764, "fair_value": 13.195796, "relative_strength": -8.52492, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.455783, "energy": 24.170427, "activity_lines": [ 14.244667, 13.966909, 14.3312, 14.588854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.51, "volume": 782, "typical_volume": 505.6, "trend": 14.696674, "fair_value": 13.181729, "relative_strength": -11.536868, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.287803, "energy": 30.611562, "activity_lines": [ 14.418, 14.069455, 14.311358, 14.58074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }