{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b9a6a9b-214c-40e4-be35-2e6aa5260e3c", "symbol": "ENMT3", "name": "Energisa Mato Grosso - Distribuidora de Energia S/A", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.035, "architecture_energy": 57.257, "architecture_maturity": 96.952, "architecture_confidence": 93.618, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 10.34, "deceleration": 59.55, "rotation_down": 52.29, "downward_expansion": 83.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.216001, 36.610182, 39.100619, 41.559893 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.98, "trend_reference": 44.530993, "distance_from_trend": -0.192023, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.342844, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.413461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.35349, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.269386, "excess_performance": -0.212338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.413461, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005528, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2100, "relative_activity": 0.63253, "balance": 0.886667, "dry_up": 1.88253, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078313, "annualized_volatility": 0.324291, "from_high_reference": -0.392288, "from_low_reference": 0.028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.530993, "fair_value_reference": 61.342844, "structural_low": 35.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.014056, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.012864, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.303297, "worst_return": -0.357707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001701, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.056953, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.161662, "worst_return": -0.132132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049871, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.145008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032035, "worst_return": -0.108835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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61.763181, "relative_strength": -28.863362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.757362, "energy": 84.185576, "activity_lines": [ 37.571334, 39.167818, 42.756646, 44.709069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.02, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 2635.0, "trend": 46.541082, "fair_value": 61.607055, "relative_strength": -34.517224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.330535, "energy": 69.64743, "activity_lines": [ 37.011333, 38.248909, 41.877037, 43.99761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.59, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 2540.0, "trend": 46.056828, "fair_value": 61.454364, "relative_strength": -30.798268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.14066, "energy": 63.681132, "activity_lines": [ 36.84, 37.669636, 41.107567, 43.355605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.900002, "volume": 11400, "typical_volume": 3050.0, "trend": 45.514291, "fair_value": 61.386254, "relative_strength": -29.216147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.024541, "energy": 56.606165, "activity_lines": [ 36.845334, 37.317819, 40.437269, 42.764842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.860001, "volume": 6600, "typical_volume": 3320.0, "trend": 45.002421, "fair_value": 61.367578, "relative_strength": -31.724898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.105694, "energy": 57.638657, "activity_lines": [ 36.510001, 36.902364, 39.726714, 42.141984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.98, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 3320.0, "trend": 44.530993, "fair_value": 61.342844, "relative_strength": -28.35349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.034784, "energy": 57.257172, "activity_lines": [ 36.216001, 36.610182, 39.100619, 41.559893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }