{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b9c87e2-5689-40a1-882b-12fcdb8c3e7e", "symbol": "BLUECOAST", "name": "Blue Coast Hotels Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.83, "architecture_energy": 38.755, "architecture_maturity": 6.651, "architecture_confidence": 79.43, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.43, "rotation_up": 15.51, "upward_expansion": 21.49, "deceleration": 52.86, "rotation_down": 66.25, "downward_expansion": 53.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.817333, 26.733636, 27.999381, 27.22172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.059999, "trend_reference": 26.607, "distance_from_trend": -0.058143, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.968718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.885748, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03131, "excess_performance": 0.012399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058143, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412814, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03131, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7710, "relative_activity": 0.635394, "balance": 0.586032, "dry_up": 0.93939, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124225, "annualized_volatility": 0.464316, "from_high_reference": -0.709651, "from_low_reference": 0.349488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.607, "fair_value_reference": 22.968718, "structural_low": 18.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.03379, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025159, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.417582, "worst_return": -0.241664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.13902, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.170093, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.608696, "worst_return": -0.471198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.309282, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.207761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.048221, "worst_return": -0.242294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.43956, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.30294, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.313043, "worst_return": -0.122137, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234469, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.853933, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.135231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.62759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.211266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.386424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181657, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13642, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2313.85, "trend": 6.693333, "fair_value": 6.111538, "relative_strength": -14.026293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.272708, "energy": 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8.659381, "energy": 14.087705, "activity_lines": [ 29.201333, 30.132909, 28.203143, 27.665269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.32, "volume": 246, "typical_volume": 15852.7, "trend": 27.965667, "fair_value": 22.333141, "relative_strength": -26.828, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.348686, "energy": 12.743549, "activity_lines": [ 28.406, 29.548182, 28.294143, 27.597247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 17491, "typical_volume": 15259.5, "trend": 27.71, "fair_value": 22.46359, "relative_strength": -26.940584, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.216661, "energy": 13.531803, "activity_lines": [ 27.910667, 28.982545, 28.365524, 27.54785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.4, "volume": 3649, "typical_volume": 12839.45, "trend": 27.497333, "fair_value": 22.597564, "relative_strength": -26.681628, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.534288, "energy": 16.018244, "activity_lines": [ 27.668, 28.524, 28.44381, 27.52785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.0, "volume": 14953, "typical_volume": 12101.55, "trend": 27.196333, "fair_value": 22.728974, "relative_strength": -25.602569, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.741412, "energy": 13.739144, "activity_lines": [ 27.365333, 28.072364, 28.455095, 27.495763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.74, "volume": 19283, "typical_volume": 12221.25, "trend": 26.851333, "fair_value": 22.847821, "relative_strength": -32.670003, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.030817, "energy": 26.822855, "activity_lines": [ 26.374667, 27.308, 28.222238, 27.33729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.059999, "volume": 7710, "typical_volume": 12134.2, "trend": 26.607, "fair_value": 22.968718, "relative_strength": -30.885748, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.829575, "energy": 38.755328, "activity_lines": [ 25.817333, 26.733636, 27.999381, 27.22172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }