{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b9ca85a-7869-45d4-b5e4-14355240e3f0", "symbol": "000875", "name": "SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.341, "architecture_energy": 49.914, "architecture_maturity": 57.458, "architecture_confidence": 82.918, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.09, "rotation_up": 25.39, "upward_expansion": 12.75, "deceleration": 60.51, "rotation_down": 51.75, "downward_expansion": 77.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.183333, 5.216622, 5.661591, 6.005745 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.18, "trend_reference": 6.353791, "distance_from_trend": -0.184739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.288196, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.180533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235988, "excess_performance": -0.243388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235988, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850725, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239506109, "relative_activity": 0.915318, "balance": 0.850725, "dry_up": 1.064881, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104935, "annualized_volatility": 0.50725, "from_high_reference": -0.381123, "from_low_reference": 0.099788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.353791, "fair_value_reference": 5.288196, "structural_low": 4.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.006568, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.006209, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.06235, "worst_return": -0.071856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006957, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01583, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.151847, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.085881, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.088221, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.182628, "worst_return": -0.151274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.78602, "energy": 88.772421, "activity_lines": [ 5.053333, 5.461213, 5.946978, 6.228264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.06, "volume": 347081655, "typical_volume": 300019602.2, "trend": 6.375458, "fair_value": 5.284742, "relative_strength": -16.587471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.88975, "energy": 84.130575, "activity_lines": [ 5.028667, 5.325489, 5.822484, 6.14217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.45, "volume": 293405091, "typical_volume": 276436215.1, "trend": 6.369124, "fair_value": 5.287002, "relative_strength": -8.588315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.475096, "energy": 56.632255, "activity_lines": [ 5.160667, 5.288559, 5.748799, 6.082463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.18, "volume": 239506109, "typical_volume": 261664394.3, "trend": 6.353791, "fair_value": 5.288196, "relative_strength": -17.180533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.341091, "energy": 49.914169, "activity_lines": [ 5.183333, 5.216622, 5.661591, 6.005745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }