{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b9d1021-a5c9-4c75-828e-bc6be3095460", "symbol": "VETH", "name": "VanEck Ethereum ETN A", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.024, "architecture_energy": 24.244, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.41, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.83, "rotation_up": 31.17, "upward_expansion": 20.13, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 20.07, "downward_expansion": 54.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.780933, 9.462273, 9.806243, 10.137637 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.972, "trend_reference": 10.799767, "distance_from_trend": -0.076647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.617923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.317824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.157026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033627, "excess_performance": -0.086939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168812, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.317824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033627, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.951218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2426, "relative_activity": 0.321301, "balance": 0.951218, "dry_up": 0.912847, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072002, "annualized_volatility": 0.462778, "from_high_reference": -0.59278, "from_low_reference": 0.243392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.799767, "fair_value_reference": 14.617923, "structural_low": 8.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.012947, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.019115, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.422016, "worst_return": -0.359506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.199704, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.130087, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.542091, "worst_return": -0.288374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.405978, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.325785, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.331842, "worst_return": -0.414996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.854958, "energy": 61.595914, "activity_lines": [ 9.000933, 9.234255, 10.036343, 10.532017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.563, "volume": 15767, "typical_volume": 8472.85, "trend": 11.385333, "fair_value": 14.623538, "relative_strength": -37.740105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.059363, "energy": 49.445975, "activity_lines": [ 9.2234, 9.205636, 9.9543, 10.401991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.841, "volume": 5977, "typical_volume": 8134.35, "trend": 11.215767, "fair_value": 14.621038, "relative_strength": -35.375081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.936416, "energy": 32.69439, "activity_lines": [ 9.483467, 9.264964, 9.9002, 10.302357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.695, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 8135.0, "trend": 11.0044, "fair_value": 14.618814, "relative_strength": -36.464759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.278861, "energy": 25.206096, "activity_lines": [ 9.631933, 9.326873, 9.836605, 10.204243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.972, "volume": 2426, "typical_volume": 7550.55, "trend": 10.799767, "fair_value": 14.617923, "relative_strength": -35.157026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.024078, "energy": 24.244407, "activity_lines": [ 9.780933, 9.462273, 9.806243, 10.137637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }