{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b9f5b9d-bf76-4597-8b77-bdadb94f320a", "symbol": "GIS", "name": "Gismondi 1754 S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.145, "architecture_energy": 43.519, "architecture_maturity": 18.833, "architecture_confidence": 73.162, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.34, "rotation_up": 68.36, "upward_expansion": 47.54, "deceleration": 40.6, "rotation_down": 24.27, "downward_expansion": 17.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.449333, 1.386727, 1.37219, 1.371817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.63, "trend_reference": 1.3775, "distance_from_trend": 0.183303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.735609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404155, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.502672, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.116438, "excess_performance": -0.054453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.183303, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140632, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184429, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116438, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.174863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56800, "relative_activity": 3.604061, "balance": 2.174863, "dry_up": 2.379442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057102, "annualized_volatility": 0.414241, "from_high_reference": -0.185, "from_low_reference": 0.325203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.3775, "fair_value_reference": 2.735609, "structural_low": 1.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.13, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.17, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13, "worst_return": 0.13, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.32, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.195339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": 0.32, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.12, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12, "worst_return": 0.12, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.395461, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-09-02", "end": "2022-09-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2022-11-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2022-12-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-09", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.192857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187166, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.531353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036232, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.6, "volume": 127600, "typical_volume": 49800.0, "trend": 5.85, "fair_value": 4.028782, "relative_strength": -24.933102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.551486, "energy": 81.135246, "activity_lines": [ 4.93, 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"relative_strength": -31.865572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.948532, "energy": 65.377292, "activity_lines": [ 1.278667, 1.302, 1.335619, 1.352914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.43, "volume": 63600, "typical_volume": 13780.0, "trend": 1.382167, "fair_value": 2.780737, "relative_strength": -20.999421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.423529, "energy": 20.645826, "activity_lines": [ 1.322667, 1.321273, 1.343143, 1.355559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.38, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 13160.0, "trend": 1.375833, "fair_value": 2.756571, "relative_strength": -23.515022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.49468, "energy": 12.209714, "activity_lines": [ 1.346, 1.331273, 1.345952, 1.355419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.63, "volume": 56800, "typical_volume": 15760.0, "trend": 1.3775, "fair_value": 2.735609, "relative_strength": -11.502672, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.145476, "energy": 43.519115, "activity_lines": [ 1.449333, 1.386727, 1.37219, 1.371817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }