{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0b9f7c17-7fe4-4a20-b2b6-6a7297254aca", "symbol": "MELI", "name": "MercadoLibre Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 78.202, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.005, "architecture_energy": 38.578, "architecture_maturity": 3.261, "architecture_confidence": 53.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.98, "rotation_up": 62.56, "upward_expansion": 51.53, "deceleration": 18.1, "rotation_down": 15.99, "downward_expansion": 21.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 1833.307333, 1791.642, 1746.205095, 1749.161054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1820.69, "trend_reference": 1792.443, "distance_from_trend": 0.015759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1873.586154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028233, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.507295, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.075862, "excess_performance": -0.263316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015759, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052534, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028233, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075862, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834495, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3187771, "relative_activity": 1.331477, "balance": 0.834495, "dry_up": 0.880778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070371, "annualized_volatility": 0.36638, "from_high_reference": -0.285584, "from_low_reference": 0.217853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1792.443, "fair_value_reference": 1873.586154, "structural_low": 1495.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028742, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005112, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.010277, "worst_return": -0.176508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083584, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.135772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18112, "worst_return": -0.137422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129693, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.030784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210066, "worst_return": -0.410731, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-0.775467, "energy": 17.09621, "activity_lines": [ 1783.590667, 1723.533818, 1712.082667, 1744.400624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1801.44, "volume": 1411963, "typical_volume": 2418829.7, "trend": 1807.558667, "fair_value": 1866.711282, "relative_strength": -17.450435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.430358, "energy": 19.96407, "activity_lines": [ 1801.421333, 1744.813455, 1720.79, 1743.566581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1877.95, "volume": 1773310, "typical_volume": 2342796.55, "trend": 1804.367, "fair_value": 1870.440705, "relative_strength": -13.593749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.863651, "energy": 39.237689, "activity_lines": [ 1833.669333, 1775.374364, 1736.719333, 1748.107957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1820.69, "volume": 3187771, "typical_volume": 2394161.4, "trend": 1792.443, "fair_value": 1873.586154, "relative_strength": -19.507295, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.005092, "energy": 38.578246, "activity_lines": [ 1833.307333, 1791.642, 1746.205095, 1749.161054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }